USDCHF: Recent succession of lower highs intact

EUR/USD

Challenging again the resistance at 1.3644.

• EUR/USD continues to move within the horizontal range defined by 1.3503 and 1.3677. Yesterday weakness was met with buying interest. Monitor the hourly resistance at 1.3644. An hourly support lies at 1.3565 (20/06/2014 low, see also the 61.8% retracement).

• In the longer term, the break of the long-term rising wedge (see also the support at 1.3673) indicates a clear deterioration of the technical structure. The long-term downside risk implied by the double-top formation is 1.3379. Key supports can be found at 1.3477 (03/02/2014 low) and 1.3296 (07/11/2013 low).

Await fresh signal.

GBP/USD

Remains strong despite the major resistance at 1.7043.

• GBP/USD remains strong as can be seen by the break of the short-term declining trendline. Monitor the test of the major resistance at 1.7043/1.7063. Hourly supports stand at 1.6953 and 1.6923 (18/06/2014 low).

• In the longer term, an eventual break of the major resistance at 1.7043 (05/08/2009 high) is favoured as long as the support at 1.6693 (29/05/2014 low) holds. Other resistances can be found at 1.7332 (see the 50% retracement of the 2008 decline) and 1.7447 (11/09/2008 low).

Await fresh signal.

USD/JPY

A decline towards the support at 100.76 is likely.

• USD/JPY has broken the support implied by the 200 day moving average (around 101.61), confirming persistent selling pressures. A further decline towards the strong support at 100.76 is likely. Hourly resistances now stand at 101.74 (intraday high) and 101.89 (26/06/2014 high).

• A long-term bullish bias is favoured as long as the key support 99.57 (19/11/2013 low) holds. A break of the key resistance at 103.02 is needed to suggest the end of the current consolidation phase. A strong support stands at 100.76 (04/02/2014 low). A major resistance stands at 110.66 (15/08/2008 high).

Await fresh signal.

USD/CHF

Recent succession of lower highs intact.

• USD/CHF continues to exhibit a short-term succession of lower highs. Monitor the test of the support at 0.8908 (05/06/2014 low, see also the 38.2% retracement). Another support lies at 0.8883. A resistance stands at 0.8974 (61.8% retracement, see also the declining channel). A strong resistance area lies between 0.9012 and 0.9037.

• From a longer term perspective, the bullish breakout of the key resistance at 0.8953 suggests the end of the large corrective phase that started in July 2012. The long-term upside potential implied by the double-bottom formation is 0.9207. A key resistance stands at 0.9156 (21/01/2014 high).

Long 1 unit at 0.8794, Obj: Close remaining at 0.9115, Stop: 0.8872 (Entered: 2014-05-08).

USD/CAD

Monitor the long-term rising trendline.

• USD/CAD has broken a key support at 1.0814, ending a 5 week consolidation. Monitor the test of the support implied by the long-term rising trendline (around 1.0634). Another strong support stands at 1.0559. Hourly resistances can be found at 1.0752 (25/06/2014 high) and 1.0833 (intraday high).

• In the longer term, the technical structure looks like a rounding bottom with a minimum target at 1.1725. However, a break of the support area implied by the long-term rising trendline (around 1.0632) and 1.0559 (29/11/2013 low) would invalidate this long-term bullish configuration.

Await fresh signal.

AUD/USD

Monitor the resistance area between 0.9438 and 0.9461.

• AUD/USD remains strong as can be seen by the potential ascending triangle. Monitor the resistance area between 0.9438 and 0.9461. Hourly supports now stand at 0.9396 (26/06/2014 low) and 0.9354 (25/06/2014 low).

• In the medium-term, prices are moving within a horizontal range between 0.9206 and 0.9461. The direction of the breakout is likely to give the next significant trend.

Await fresh signal.

GBP/JPY

Potential bearish head and shoulders.

• GBP/JPY is challenging the hourly support at 172.73. A decisive break of this level (see also the rising channel) would validate a bearish head and shoulders, with an implied downside risk at 171.36. Another support lies at 170.97. An hourly resistance stands at 173.45 (26/06/2014 high).

• In the long-term, the break of the major resistance at 163.09 (07/08/2009 high) calls for further strength towards the resistance at 179.17 (15/08/2002 low). The long-term technical structure remains supportive as long as the key support area defined by 163.89 (04/02/2014 low) and the 200 day moving average (see also the long-term rising trendline from the February 2013 low) holds. A key resistance lies at 174.85 (02/01/2014 high).

Await fresh signal.

EUR/JPY

The resistance at 138.89 continues to cap prices.

• EUR/JPY remains below the resistance implied by its 200 day moving average, indicating persistent selling pressures. As a result, a bearish bias is favoured as long as prices remain below the resistance at 138.89 (19/06/2014 high). Supports stand at 137.73 and 136.23 (04/02/2014 low). Another resistance can be found at 139.43 (10/06/2014 high).

• Despite the strong support at 136.23 (04/02/2014 low), the long-term technical structure remains positive as long as the support at 134.11 (20/11/2013 low) holds. A strong resistance stands at 145.69 (27/12/2013 high).

Await fresh signal.

EUR/GBP

The resistance at 0.8033 has held thus far.

• EUR/GBP continues to consolidate near the key support at 0.7961 (08/11/2012 low). A break of the hourly resistance at 0.8033 (intraday low) is needed to indicate some exhaustion in the selling pressures. Other hourly resistances are given by 0.8065 (12/06/2014 high) and the declining trendline (around 0.8087).

• In the longer term, the break of the key support area between 0.8082 and 0.8065 (05/06/2014 low) opens the way for a full retracement of the rise that started at 0.7755 (23/07/2012 low). A break of the resistance at 0.8184 (14/05/2014 high) is needed to suggest some exhaustion in the long-term selling pressures.

Await fresh signal.

EUR/CHF

Succession of lower highs intact.

• EUR/CHF remains weak, as can be seen by the persistent succession of lower highs. An hourly resistance can be found at 1.2178 (20/06/2014 high). However, a break of the resistance at 1.2200 (09/06/2014 high) is needed to negate the downside risk implied by the recent break of the symmetrical triangle. Supports lie at 1.2152 (19/06/2014 low) and 1.2141.

• In the longer term, prices are moving in a broad horizontal range between the key support at 1.2104 and the resistance at 1.2261.
  

• In September 2011, the SNB put a floor at 1.2000 in EUR/CHF, which is expected to hold in the foreseeable future.

Long 3 units at 1.2329, Objs: 1.2660/1.2985/1.3195, Stop: 1.1998 (Entered: 2013-01-23).

GOLD (in USD)

The support at 1307 has held thus far.

• Gold has successfully tested the support at 1307. Monitor the current bounce as a key resistance stands at 1331 (see also the 61.8% retracement). Another support can be found at 1285.

• Longer term, we are sceptical that the horizontal range between the strong support at 1181 (28/06/2013 low) and the major resistance at 1434 (30/08/2013 high) is a long-term bullish reversal pattern. As a result, a decline towards the low of this range is eventually favoured.

Await fresh signal.

SILVER (in USD)

Challenging its recent highs.

• Silver remains in a short-term succession of higher lows despite its current overextended rise. The resistance at 21.17 is challenged. Hourly supports can be found at 20.80 (26/06/2014 low) and 20.58. Another resistance lies at 21.79.

• In the long-term, the trend is negative. However, the successful test of the strong support area between 18.84 and 18.23 (28/06/2013 low) and the break of the resistance at 20.41 (24/02/2014 high) indicate clear exhaustion in the selling pressures. A key resistance stands at 22.18 (24/02/2014 high).

Await fresh signal.