USDCHF: Recent succession of lower highs intact

EUR/USD

Grinding higher.

• EUR/USD is grinding higher within the horizontal range between 1.3503 and 1.3677. An hourly support lies at 1.3565 (20/06/2014 low, see also the 61.8% retracement). An hourly resistance can be found at 1.3644 (19/06/2014 high).

• In the longer term, the break of the long-term rising wedge (see also the support at 1.3673) indicates a clear deterioration of the technical structure. The long-term downside risk implied by the double-top formation is 1.3379. Key supports can be found at 1.3477 (03/02/2014 low) and 1.3296 (07/11/2013 low).

Await fresh signal.

GBP/USD

Short-term correction likely underway.

• GBP/USD is weakening after having failed to break the major resistance at 1.7043. A break of the hourly support at 1.6923 (18/06/2014 low, see also the 38.2% retracement) would negate the current positive technical configuration. Another support can be found at 1.6882 (27/05/2014 high, see also the 50% retracement).

• In the longer term, an eventual break of the major resistance at 1.7043 (05/08/2009 high) is favoured as long as the support at 1.6693 (29/05/2014 low) holds. Other resistances can be found at 1.7332 (see the 50% retracement of the 2008 decline) and 1.7447 (11/09/2008 low).

Await fresh signal.

USD/JPY

Moving sideways.

• USD/JPY is moving sideways despite the proximity of the support implied by the 200 day moving average (around 101.61). The hourly resistance at 102.20 (20/06/2014 high, see also the declining trendline) has held thus far, confirming a lack of sustained buying interest. Another hourly resistance lies at 102.36, whereas another support stands at 101.43.

• A long-term bullish bias is favoured as long as the key support 99.57 (19/11/2013 low) holds. Monitor the support area provided by the 200 day moving average and 100.76 (04/02/2014 low). A break of the key resistance at 103.02 is needed to suggest the end of the current consolidation phase. A major resistance stands at 110.66 (15/08/2008 high).

Await fresh signal.

USD/CHF

Recent succession of lower highs intact.

• USD/CHF has successfully tested the support at 0.8908 (05/06/2014 low, see also the 38.2% retracement). However, the bounce has thus far failed to break the resistance implied by the 61.8% retracement at 0.8974. Furthermore, the short-term succession of lower highs remains intact. Another support stands at 0.8883. A strong resistance area lies between 0.9012 and 0.9037.

• From a longer term perspective, the bullish breakout of the key resistance at 0.8953 suggests the end of the large corrective phase that started in July 2012. The long-term upside potential implied by the double-bottom formation is 0.9207. A key resistance stands at 0.9156 (21/01/2014 high).

Long 1 unit at 0.8794, Obj: Close remaining at 0.9115, Stop: 0.8872 (Entered: 2014-05-08).

USD/CAD

Trying to bounce.

• USD/CAD has broken the key support at 1.0814, ending a 5 week consolidation. The momentum is negative as long as prices remain below the resistance at 1.0833 (intraday high). Monitor the bounce attempt near the support implied by the 50% retracement at 1.0731. An initial resistance lies at 1.0776 (intraday high).

• In the longer term, the technical structure looks like a rounding bottom with a minimum target at 1.1725. However, a break of the support area implied by the long-term rising trendline (around 1.0628) and 1.0559 (29/11/2013 low) would invalidate this long-term bullish configuration.

Await fresh signal.

AUD/USD

A further decline towards the support at 0.9319 is likely.

• AUD/USD is weakening after having failed to break the significant resistance area between 0.9438 (12/06/2014 high) and 0.9461. The hourly support at 0.9369 (23/06/2014 low) has been broken, opening the way for a test of the support at 0.9319. An hourly resistance now lies at 0.9410 (intraday high).

• In the medium-term, prices are moving within a horizontal range between 0.9206 and 0.9461. The direction of the breakout is likely to give the next significant trend. For the time being, we favour further sideways moves.

Await fresh signal.

GBP/JPY

Monitor the support at 172.73.

• GBP/JPY has weakened near the key resistance at 173.66 and is now challenging the hourly support at 172.73. A break of this level would negate the current short-term bullish bias. Other supports are given by the rising channel (around 172.60) and 170.97.

• In the long-term, the break of the major resistance at 163.09 (07/08/2009 high) calls for further strength towards the resistance at 179.17 (15/08/2002 low). The long-term technical structure remains supportive as long as the key support area defined by 163.89 (04/02/2014 low) and the 200 day moving average (see also the long-term rising trendline from the February 2013 low) holds. A key resistance lies at 174.85 (02/01/2014 high).

Await fresh signal.

EUR/JPY

Remains thus far below its 200 day moving average.

• EUR/JPY has thus far failed to move back above its 200 day moving average, indicating persistent selling pressures. An hourly support lies at 138.29 (23/06/2014 low), while a more significant support stands at 137.73. Hourly resistances can be found at 138.89 (19/06/2014 high) and 139.43 (10/06/2014 high).

• Despite the strong support at 136.23 (04/02/2014 low), the long-term technical structure remains positive as long as the support at 134.11 (20/11/2013 low) holds. A strong resistance stands at 145.69 (27/12/2013 high).

Await fresh signal.

EUR/GBP

Bouncing near the support at 0.7961.

• EUR/GBP is bouncing near the key support at 0.7961. A break of the hourly resistance at 0.8033 (intraday low) is needed to indicate some exhaustion in the selling pressures. Another hourly resistance lies at 0.8065 (12/06/2014 high).

• In the longer term, the break of the key support area between 0.8082 and 0.8065 (05/06/2014 low) opens the way for a full retracement of the rise that started at 0.7755 (23/07/2012 low). A break of the resistance at 0.8184 (14/05/2014 high) is needed to suggest some exhaustion in the long-term selling pressures.

Await fresh signal.

EUR/CHF

Remains weak.

• EUR/CHF remains weak, as can be seen by the persistent succession of lower highs. An hourly resistance can be found at 1.2178 (20/06/2014 high). However, a break of the resistance at 1.2200 (09/06/2014 high) is needed to negate the downside risk implied by the recent break of the symmetrical triangle. Supports lie at 1.2152 (19/06/2014 low) and 1.2141.

• In the longer term, prices are moving in a broad horizontal range between the key support at 1.2104 and the resistance at 1.2261.

• In September 2011, the SNB put a floor at 1.2000 in EUR/CHF, which is expected to hold in the foreseeable future.

Long 3 units at 1.2329, Objs: 1.2660/1.2985/1.3195, Stop: 1.1998 (Entered: 2013-01-23).

GOLD (in USD)

Exhaustion is short-term buying interest?

• Gold has weakened after having reached new highs yesterday. Coupled with the key resistance at 1331 (see also the 61.8% retracement) and the short-term overextended rise, odds to see further exhaustion in the buying interest are increasing. Monitor the hourly support at 1307. Another support lies at 1285.

• Longer term, we are sceptical that the horizontal range between the strong support at 1181 (28/06/2013 low) and the major resistance at 1434 (30/08/2013 high) is a long-term bullish reversal pattern. As a result, a decline towards the low of this range is eventually favoured.

Await fresh signal.

SILVER (in USD)

Short-term correction underway?

• Silver made new highs yesterday only to reverse most of its gains at the end of the session. A break of the support at 20.58 would confirm a fading bullish momentum. Other supports can be found at 20.41 (previous resistance) and 20.00 (14/05/2014 low, see also the rising trendline). An hourly resistance now lies at 21.17.

• In the long-term, the trend is negative. However, the successful test of the strong support area between 18.84 and 18.23 (28/06/2013 low) and the break of the resistance at 20.41 (24/02/2014 high) indicate clear exhaustion in the selling pressures. A key resistance stands at 22.18 (24/02/2014 high).

Await fresh signal.