USDCHF: Bearish pause above 0.8699

EUR/USD

Deeper Correction

• EUR/USD bearish momentum has stalled around support at 1.3820 (old resistance). Failure to find support here, followed by a clear break under 1.3820 (02/02/2014) region, will warn of a larger downside corrective phase to1.3673.

• In the longer term, EUR/USD is still in a dominate uptrend, suggesting additional upside can be anticipated. A significant resistance now lies at 1.3876 (24/03/2014 high).

Await fresh signal.

GBP/USD

Bullish Rally Stalls at 1.6823

• GBP/USD strong bullish run was halted at key resistance 1.6823. Failure to break key level suggest a degree of exhaustion and suggests more further downside to 1.6684 (31/03/2013 high) then 1.6600 (7/04/2014). The short-term bullish momentum is intact as long as the hourly support at 1.6684 (previous resistance) holds. Another support lies at 1.6556.

• In the longer term, prices continue to move in a rising channel. As a result, a bullish bias remains favoured as long as the support at 1.6460 holds. A major resistance stands at 1.7043 (05/08/2009 high).

Await fresh signal.

USD/JPY

Bearish pause above 100.76 support

• USD/JPY has broken the support at 102.68 (19/03/2014 high), leading to a sharp decline. Even though the support at 101.72 has been breached, prices are now close to a key support between 101.56 (see the rising trendline from 100.76 (04/02/2014 low)) and 100.76 (see also the 200 day moving average). A resistance now stands at 102.68 (previous support).

• A long-term bullish bias is favoured as long as the key support area given by the 200 day moving average (around 100.80) and 99.57 (see also the rising trendline from the 93.79 low (13/06/2013)) holds. A major resistance stands at 110.66 (15/08/2008 high).

Await fresh signal.

USD/CHF

Bearish pause above 0.8699

• USD/CHF has further recovered off 0.8744 (11/04/2014 low). Hourly resistance stands at 0.8814 01/04/2014 pivot low). However, the dominate bearish momentum suggests a challenge to key support at 0.8699 (13/03/14).

• From a longer term perspective, the structure present since 0.9972 (24/07/2012) is seen as a large corrective phase. The recent technical improvements suggest weakening selling pressures and a potential base formation. A decisive break of the key resistance at 0.8930 would open the way for further medium-term strength.

Await fresh signal.

USD/CAD

Recovery underway

• USD/CAD failure to break Fibo support at 1.0860, hurt short-term momentum. Resistances for a short-term bounce still stands at 1.1010 (07/04/2014 high) and 1.1048 (02/04/2014 high). Other supports are given by 1.0860 (see 38.2% retracement) and 1.0738 (20/12/2013 high).

• In the longer term, the decisive break of the major resistance at 1.0870 validates a multi-year basing formation whose minimum upside potential is around 1.1910. The key resistance given by the 50% retracement (around 1.1236) of the decline from the September 2009 peak at 1.3065 remains thus far intact. A key support stands at 1.0911 (19/02/2014 low).

Await fresh signal.

AUD/USD

Challenging Resistance at 0.9448

• AUD/USD has broken the key resistance at 0.9168, validating a 3 month bullish reversal pattern. A key resistance still stands at 0.9448. Hourly supports can be found at 0.9295 (previous resistance, see also the short-term rising trendline) and 0.9254 (07/04/2014 low).

• In the medium-term, the decisive break of the strong resistance at 0.9168 (02/12/2013 high, see also the 200 day moving average) favours a further rise towards the key resistance at 0.9448. Above that resistance at 0.9758 (23/10/2013 high) looms.

• Longer term, the underlying downtrend still favours a bearish bias.

• We have raised the stop-loss of our strategy.

Long 2 units at 0.9175, Obj: Close unit 1 at 0.9429, remaining at 0.9691, Stop: 0.9278 (Entered: 2014-03-26).

GBP/JPY

Sideways Consolidation

• GBP/JPY has shifted into a sideways range after making new monthly lows earlier in the week, confirming a weak price momentum. Developing symmetrical triangle should be monitored. A break of the hourly resistance at 171.61 (07/04/2014 high) is needed to negate the current short-term bearish momentum. A support can be found at 169.17 (uptrend & triangle floor). A key resistance stands at 173.66, whereas a key support lies at 169.40.

• The break of the major resistance at 163.09 (07/08/2009 high) calls for further long-term strength towards the resistance at 179.17 (15/08/2002 low). The long-term technical structure remains supportive as long as the key support area defined by 163.89 (04/02/2014 low) and the 200 day moving average (see also the long-term rising trendline from the February 2013 low) holds.

Await fresh signal.

EUR/JPY

Monitor the support at 139.97.

•  EUR/JPY remains in a consolidation pattern in the daily time frame, with a break under 139.20 required to trigger a further extension lower. However, the medium-term trend is neutral and a significant support is at 139.97. A resistance lies at 141.90, while a key resistance area can be found between 143.38 (13/03/2014 high) and 143.79. A key support stands at 138.68.

• Despite the key support at 136.23 (04/02/2014 low, see also the 200 day moving average), the long-term technical structure remains positive as long as the support at 134.11 (20/11/2013 low) holds. A strong resistance can be found at 147.04 (16/09/2008 low).

Await fresh signal.

EUR/GBP

Recovery Falters

• EUR/GBP recovery rally has stalled, shifting into a sideways pattern. However, bearish momentum still dominates reinforced by the break of support at 0.8246,. Other supports can be found at 0.8204 (05/03/2014 low) and 0.8191 (28/02/2014 low). Key resistance stands at 0.8322.

• In the longer term, the failure to make any follow-through after the break of the resistance at 0.8350 (06/02/2014 high) calls for caution as prices remain below the declining 200 day moving average. A key support area stands at between 0.8168 and 0.8158.

Await fresh signal.

EUR/CHF

Short-Term reversal wont last

• EUR/CHF reversed sharply off but rally is already losing momentum. Therefore, we suspect resumption of bearish trend towards key support at 1.2120 (26/02/2013) in the daily time frame. The break of the support at 1.2163 confirms an underlying bearish trend.

• In September 2011, the SNB put a floor at 1.2000 in EUR/CHF, which is expected to hold in the medium-term.

Long 3 units at 1.2329, Objs: 1.2660/1.2985/1.3195, Stop: 1.1998 (Entered: 2013-01-23).

GOLD (in USD)

End of short-term weakness

• Gold has breached the channel support at 1319. Yet short-term recovery remains in place as long as the support at 1301 (10/04/2014) holds. An initial resistance is at 1320 (1old channel support). Break above give scope for a resumption of uptrend, towards the 1343 level.

• Longer term, we are skeptical of a long-term bullish reversal pattern. A move back to the previous lows at 1181 (28/06/2013 low) is eventually favoured. A major resistance stands at 1434 (30/08/2013 high).

Await fresh signal.

SILVER (in USD)

Unchanged - Drifting Sideways

• Silver is moving sideways as it has thus far been unable to break the resistance at 20.38 to improve the technical structure. An hourly support lies at 19.79 (07/04/2014 low). Another support stands at 19.58. A key resistance remains at 20.58 (21/03/2014 high).

• In the long-term, the trend is negative. However, the potential higher low at 18.84 (31/12/2013 low) and the break of the resistance at 20.52 suggest a phase of stabilisation. A key resistance stands at 23.09.

Await fresh signal.