USD CHF: Weakening

EUR/USD

Bouncing near the support at 1.3708.

• EUR/USD is bouncing near the support at 1.3708. However, the declining trendline continues to favour a bearish bias. An hourly resistance for a short-term bounce can be found at 1.3847 (25/03/2014 high). Another resistance lies at 1.3876.

• In the medium-term, the break of the support at 1.3834 (11/03/2014 low, see also the rising channel) coupled with general overbought conditions favour a move lower towards the support at 1.3643. The recent high at 1.3967 is likely to act as a strong resistance.

Await fresh signal.

GBP/USD

Pushing higher.

• GBP/USD continues to rise after the successful test of its rising channel. The hourly resistance at 1.6666 has been breached. Other resistances can be found at 1.6718 and 1.6786 (07/03/2014 high). The short-term momentum remains positive as long as the hourly support at 1.6598 (28/03/2014 low) holds. Another hourly support stands at 1.6555 (27/03/2014 low).

• In the longer term, a break to the downside out of the rising channel would negate the current bullish bias implied by the break of the resistance at 1.6668 (24/01/2014 high). A strong horizontal support stands at 1.6220 (17/12/2013 low).

• Our short strategy has been stopped.

Our short strategy has been stopped.

USD/JPY

Challenging the resistance at 103.43.

• USD/JPY continues to improve. Monitor the resistance area between 103.43 and 103.76. The short-term structure is positive as long as the hourly support at 102.75 (intraday low) holds. Another support can be found at 102.43 (27/03/2014 high).

• A long-term bullish bias is favoured as long as the key support area given by the 200 day moving average (around 100.66) and 99.57 (see also the rising trendline from the 93.79 low (13/06/2013)) holds. A major resistance stands at 110.66 (15/08/2008 high).

Await fresh signal.

USD/CHF

Weakening.

• USD/CHF weakened yesterday, confirming a fading short-term bullish momentum. An hourly support is given by the rising trendline (around 0.8816). Another support stands at 0.8787. Resistances can be found at 0.8896 and 0.8930.

• From a longer term perspective, the structure present since 0.9972 (24/07/2012) is seen as a large corrective phase. The recent technical improvements suggest weakening selling pressures. A key resistance lies at 0.8930.

Await fresh signal.

USD/CAD

Trying to form a short-term base.

• USD/CAD is trying to form a short-term base near the support at 1.0956 (06/03/2014 low, see also the rising trendline). A break of the initial resistance at 1.1078 (28/03/2014 high) would validate a tiny double-bottom. Other resistances stand at 1.1107 (27/03/2014 high) and 1.1171 (26/03/2014 high). An hourly support can be found at 1.1001 (28/03/2014 low).

• In the longer term, the decisive break of the major resistance at 1.0870 validates a multi-year basing formation whose minimum upside potential is around 1.1910. The key resistance given by the 50% retracement (around 1.1236) of the decline from the September 2009 peak at 1.3065 remains thus far intact. A key support stands at 1.0911 (19/02/2014 low).

Await fresh signal.

AUD/USD

Consolidating.

• AUD/USD has broken the key resistance at 0.9168, validating a 3 month bullish reversal pattern. Hourly supports can be found at 0.9214 (27/03/2014 low) and 0.9154 (26/03/2014 low). An hourly resistance now stands at 0.9304 (intraday high).

• In the medium-term, the decisive break of the strong resistance at 0.9168 (02/12/2013 high, see also the 200 day moving average) favours a further rise towards the key resistance at 0.9448.

• We have raised (again) the stop-loss of our long positions.

Long 2 units at 0.9175, Obj: Close unit 1 at 0.9429, remaining at 0.9691, Stop: 0.9204 (Entered: 2014-03-26)

GBP/JPY

Pushing higher.

• GBP/JPY continues to move higher as can be seen by the break of the resistance at 171.64. Another resistance stands 173.66. Hourly supports can be found at 170.99 and 170.33 (27/03/2014 high).

• The break of the major resistance at 163.09 (07/08/2009 high) calls for further long-term strength towards the resistance at 179.17 (15/08/2002 low). The long-term technical structure remains supportive as long as the key low at 160.41 (19/11/2013 low) holds.

• We have raised our stop-loss on our remaining long position.

Long 1 unit at 169.75, Obj: Close unit 1 at 173.45, Stop: 170.89 (Entered: 2014-03-27)

EUR/JPY

Bullish breakout at 141.98.

• EUR/JPY has broken the resistance area defined by the declining trendline and 141.98, opening the way for further short-term strength. Resistances stand at 143.38 (31/03/2014 high) and 143.79. Hourly supports can be found at 141.79 (intraday low) and 141.28 (intraday low).

• The long-term technical structure remains positive as long as the support at 134.11 (20/11/2013 low, see also the 200 day moving average) holds. Resistances can be found at 147.04 (16/09/2008 low) and 157.00 (08/09/2008 high).

Await fresh signal.

EUR/GBP

Moving sideways.

• EUR/GBP is trying to stabilise itself near the support at 0.8263 (see also the rising trendline). Monitor the hourly horizontal range between 0.8246 and 0.8298. Another resistance lies at 0.8322 (27/03/2014 high). Another support stands at 0.8191 (28/02/2014 low).

• In the longer term, the failure to make any follow-through after the break of the resistance at 0.8350 (06/02/2014 high) calls for caution as prices remain below a declining 200 day moving average. A key support area stands at between 0.8168 and 0.8158.

Await fresh signal.

EUR/CHF

Remains weak.

• EUR/CHF remains weak after its daily shooting star made on 26 March. Hourly resistances lie at 1.2207 (27/03/2014 high) and 1.2238. Hourly supports are given by 1.2163 and the rising channel (around 1.2145).

• In September 2011, the SNB put a floor at 1.2000 in EUR/CHF, which is expected to hold in the medium-term.

Long 3 units at 1.2329, Objs: 1.2660/1.2985/1.3195, Stop: 1.1998 (Entered: 2013-01-23)

GOLD (in USD)

Testing the support at 1276.

• Gold remains weak. However, monitor the test of the support at 1276 given the current shortterm overextended decline. Hourly resistances can be found at 1300 and 1317. Another support lies at 1232.

• Longer term, we are sceptical of a long-term bullish reversal pattern. A move back to the previous lows at 1181 (28/06/2013 low) is favoured. A major resistance stands at 1434 (30/08/2013 high).

Await fresh signal.

SILVER (in USD)

Short-term base underway?

• Silver is trying to bounce. An hourly resistance lies at 20.22 (25/03/2014 high). However, the technical structure is negative as long as prices remain below the resistance at 20.58 (21/03/2014 high). An hourly support stands at 19.58, while a key support lies at 19.01 (30/01/2014 low).

• In the long-term, the trend is negative. However, the potential higher low at 18.84 (31/12/2013 low) and the break of the resistance at 20.52 suggest a phase of stabilisation. A key resistance now stands at 23.09.

Await fresh signal.