USDCHF: Grinding higher

EUR/USD

Bouncing near the support at 1.3708.

• EUR/USD is trying to bounce near the support at 1.3708. However, the underlying technical structure remains negative. Hourly resistances for a short-term bounce can be found at 1.3779 (intraday high) and 1.3847 (25/03/2014 high).

• In the medium-term, the break of the support at 1.3834 (11/03/2014 low, see also the rising channel) coupled with general overbought conditions favour a move lower towards the support at 1.3643. The recent high at 1.3967 is likely to act as a strong resistance.

Await fresh signal.

GBP/USD

Challenging the resistance at 1.6666.

• GBP/USD continues to rise after the successful test of its rising channel. The hourly resistance at 1.6666 is now challenged. Another resistance can be found at 1.6718. Hourly supports stand at 1.6598 (28/03/2014 low) and 1.6555 (27/03/2014 low).

• In the longer term, a break to the downside out of the rising channel would negate the current bullish bias implied by the break of the resistance at 1.6668 (24/01/2014 high). A strong horizontal support stands at 1.6220 (17/12/2013 low).

Short 2 units at 1.6562, Obj: Close unit 1 at 1.6340, remaining at 1.6050, Stop: 1.6671 (Entered: 2014-03-18).

USD/JPY

Making new highs.

• USD/JPY has improved its technical structure by breaking the resistance at 102.68. Further short-term strength is favoured. Hourly resistances stand at 103.43 and 103.76. Hourly supports can be found at 102.68 (previous resistance) and 102.43 (27/03/2014 high).

• A long-term bullish bias is favoured as long as the key support area given by the 200 day moving average (around 100.66) and 99.57 (see also the rising trendline from the 93.79 low (13/06/2013)) holds. A major resistance stands at 110.66 (15/08/2008 high).

Await fresh signal.

USD/CHF

Grinding higher.

• USD/CHF continues to grind higher. However, monitor the lack of follow-through after the move above 0.8874 (38.2% retracement), especially given the resistances at 0.8896 and 0.8930. Hourly supports are given by 0.8834 (intraday low) and the rising trendline (around 0.8807).

• From a longer term perspective, the structure present since 0.9972 (24/07/2012) is seen as a large corrective phase. The recent technical improvements suggest weakening selling pressures.

Await fresh signal.

USD/CAD

Approaching a key rising trendline.

• USD/CAD is now close to the support at 1.0956 (06/03/2014 low, see also the rising trendline) after its recent sharp decline. A break of the hourly resistance at 1.1107 (27/03/2014 high) is needed to improve the short-term technical structure. Another resistance lies at 1.1171 (26/03/2014 high).

• In the longer term, the decisive break of the major resistance at 1.0870 validates a multi-year basing formation whose minimum upside potential is around 1.1910. The key resistance given by the 50% retracement (around 1.1236) of the decline from the September 2009 peak at 1.3065 remains thus far intact. A key support stands at 1.0911 (19/02/2014 low).

Await fresh signal.

AUD/USD

Pausing.

• AUD/USD has broken the key resistance at 0.9168, validating a 3 month bullish reversal pattern. Hourly supports can be found at 0.9214 (27/03/2014 low) and 0.9154 (26/03/2014 low). An hourly resistance now stands at 0.9295.

• In the medium-term, the decisive break of the strong resistance at 0.9168 (02/12/2013 high, see also the 200 day moving average) favours a further rise towards the key resistance at 0.9448.

Long 2 units at 0.9175, Obj: Close unit 1 at 0.9429, remaining at 0.9691, Stop: 0.9125 (Entered: 2014-03-26).

GBP/JPY

Challenging the resistance at 171.64.

• GBP/JPY has significantly improved after the break out of its horizontal range between 167.94 and 169.61. The resistance at 171.64 is challenged. Another resistance stands 173.66. An initial support can be found at 170.99 (intraday low), while an hourly support lies at 170.33 (27/03/2014 high).

• The break of the major resistance at 163.09 (07/08/2009 high) calls for further long-term strength towards the resistance at 179.17 (15/08/2002 low). The long-term technical structure remains supportive as long as the key low at 160.41 (19/11/2013 low) holds.

• We have raised our stop-loss on our remaining long position.

Long 1 unit at 169.75, Obj: Close unit 1 at 173.45, Stop: 170.17 (Entered: 2014-03-27).

EUR/JPY

Approaching the resistance at 141.98.

• EUR/JPY has bounced sharply, improving the short-term technical structure. However, prices have to break the resistance area defined by the declining trendline (around 141.79) and 141.98 to suggest more sustainable strength. Hourly supports can be found at 141.04 (27/03/2014 high) and 139.97.

• The long-term technical structure remains positive as long as the support at 134.11 (20/11/2013 low, see also the 200 day moving average) holds. Resistances can be found at 147.04 (16/09/2008 low) and 157.00 (08/09/2008 high).

Await fresh signal.

EUR/GBP

Trying to bounce.

• EUR/GBP is trying to stabilise itself near the support at 0.8263 (see also the rising trendline). A break of the initial resistance at 0.8286 (intraday high) is needed to suggest something more than a dead cat bounce. Another resistance lies at 0.8322 (27/03/2014 high). Other supports stand at 0.8191 (28/02/2014 low) and 0.8158 (17/02/2014 low).

• In the longer term, the failure to make any follow-through after the break of the resistance at 0.8350 (06/02/2014 high) calls for caution as prices remain below a declining 200 day moving average. A key support area stands at between 0.8168 and 0.8158.

Await fresh signal.

EUR/CHF

Remains weak.

• EUR/CHF remains weak after its daily shooting star made on 26 March. Hourly resistances lie at 1.2207 (27/03/2014 high) and 1.2238. Hourly supports can be found at 1.2176 and 1.2163.

• In September 2011, the SNB put a floor at 1.2000 in EUR/CHF, which is expected to hold in the medium-term.

Long 3 units at 1.2329, Objs: 1.2660/1.2985/1.3195, Stop: 1.1998 (Entered: 2013-01-23).

GOLD (in USD)

Succession of lower highs intact.

• Gold continues to decline as can be seen by the break of the support at 1307 (see also the 200 day moving average). Other supports stand at 1276 and 1232. An initial resistance now lies at 1300 (intraday high). Hourly resistances can be found at 1317 and 1343.

• Longer term, we are sceptical of a long-term bullish reversal pattern. A move back to the previous lows at 1181 (28/06/2013 low) is favoured. A major resistance stands at 1434 (30/08/2013 high).

Await fresh signal.

SILVER (in USD)

Trying to bounce.

• Silver is trying to bounce. An hourly resistance lies at 20.22 (25/03/2014 high). However, the technical structure is negative as long as prices remain below the resistance at 20.58 (21/03/2014 high). An hourly support now stands at 19.58, while a key support lies at 19.01 (30/01/2014 low).

• In the long-term, the trend is negative. However, the potential higher low at 18.84 (31/12/2013 low) and the break of the resistance at 20.52 suggest a phase of stabilisation. A key resistance now stands at 23.09.

Await fresh signal.