EUR/USD
Significant deterioration in the technical structure.
EUR/USD has broken the support implied by its rising channel, invalidating the uptrend in place since February. The short-term technical structure is negative as long as prices remain below the resistance at 1.3845 (20/03/2014 high). Supports can be found at 1.3708 (05/03/2014 low) and 1.3643.
In the medium-term, the break of the support at 1.3834 (11/03/2014 low, see also the rising channel) coupled with general overbought conditions favour a move lower towards the support at 1.3643. The recent high at 1.3967 is likely to act as a strong resistance.
Await fresh signal.
GBP/USD
Challenging its rising trendline.
GBP/USD continues to decline and is now approaching the support implied by its rising channel (around 1.6460). Hourly resistances are given by the declining channel (around 1.6619) and 1.6666. Another support can be found at 1.6252 (05/02/2014 low).
In the longer term, a break to the downside out of the rising channel would negate the current bullish bias implied by the break of the resistance at 1.6668 (24/01/2014 high). A strong horizontal support stands at 1.6220 (17/12/2013 low).
Short 2 at 1.6562, Obj: Close unit 1 at 1.6340, remaining at 1.6050, Stop: 1.6671 (Entered: 2014-03-18)
USD/JPY
Moving sideways.
USD/JPY has bounced sharply near the key support at 101.20, favouring more sideways moves. Resistances stand at 102.87 and 103.76. An hourly support lies at 101.94 (previous resistance).
A long-term bullish bias is favoured as long as the key support area given by the 200 day moving average (around 100.48) and 99.57 (see also the rising trendline from the 93.79 low (13/06/2013)) holds. A major resistance stands at 110.66 (15/08/2008 high).
Await fresh signal.
USD/CHF
Challenging its declining trendline.
USD/CHF has breached the resistance implied by the declining trendline, but has thus far failed to make a daily close above it. A decisive break is needed to confirm a sustainable phase of strength. Hourly supports can be found at 0.8800 (20/03/2014 low) and 0.8765 (13/03/2014 high). Another resistance can be found at 0.8896 (05/03/2014 high).
From a longer term perspective, the structure present since 0.9972 (24/07/2012) is seen as a large corrective phase. A break of the declining trendline is needed to improve the mediumterm technical structure.
Await fresh signal.
USD/CAD
Pausing.
USD/CAD has broken to the upside out of its symmetrical triangle, calling for an upside potential at 1.1450. The resistance at 1.1224 has been broken, leaving few resistances to impede a further rise. Hourly support can be found at 1.1199 (intraday high) and 1.1154 (12/03/2014 high).
In the longer term, the decisive break of the major resistance at 1.0870 validates a multi-year basing formation whose minimum upside potential is around 1.1910. The resistance given by the 50% retracement of the decline from the September 2009 peak at 1.3065 (around 1.1236) has been breached. A key support stands at 1.0911 (19/02/2014 low).
Buy stop 2 at 1.1281, Obj: Close unit 1 at 1.1450, remaining at 1.1675, Stop: 1.1224
AUD/USD
Successful test of the support at 0.8993.
AUD/USD has weakened near the strong resistance at 0.9168. However, a short-term bullish bias is still favoured as long as the support at 0.8993 (17/03/2014 low) holds. An hourly resistance lies at 0.9133.
The long-term technical pattern remains negative as long as prices are below the strong resistance at 0.9168 (02/12/2013 high, see also the 200 day moving average). Another key resistance lies at 0.9448 (20/11/2013 high).
Buy stop 2 at 0.9175, Obj: Close unit 1 at 0.9429, remaining at 0.9691, Stop: 0.9125
GBP/JPY
Monitor the hourly horizontal range.
GBP/JPY has failed to break the resistance at 169.61. Monitor the support at 167.94. Another resistance stands at 171.64, whereas another support lies at 166.17 (07/02/2014 low).
The break of the major resistance at 163.09 (07/08/2009 high) calls for further long-term strength towards the resistance at 179.17 (15/08/2002 low). The long-term technical structure remains supportive as long as the key low at 160.41 (19/11/2013 low) holds.
Buy stop 2 at 169.75, Obj: Close unit 1 at 171.25, remaining at 173.45, Stop: 168.98
EUR/JPY
Moving below the support implied by the rising trendline.
EUR/JPY is moving below its rising trendline. Monitor the support at 140.45. A key support stands at 138.68. A break of the hourly resistance at 141.98 is needed to improve the short-term technical structure.
The long-term technical structure remains positive as long as the support at 134.11 (20/11/2013 low, see also the 200 day moving average) holds. Resistances can be found at 147.04 (16/09/2008 low) and 157.00 (08/09/2008 high).
Await fresh signal.
EUR/GBP
Weakening.
EUR/GBP has thus failed to break the resistance at 0.8405 (25/12/2013 high) and has invalidated its short-term succession of higher lows. However, the technical structure favours a move towards the key resistance at 0.8467 as long as the support at 0.8321 (11/03/2014 low) holds. An initial resistance lies at 0.8377 (intraday high). Another support can be found at 0.8263 (intraday low).
In the longer term, the breakout of the resistance at 0.8350 (13/01/2014 high) validates a base formation with an implied upside potential at 0.8532. Key resistances stand at 0.8464 (13/11/2013 high) and 0.8585 (29/10/2014 high).
Await fresh signal.
EUR/CHF
Bullish momentum shows signs of shortterm exhaustion.
EUR/CHF posted large daily upper shadows in the last two days while approaching the key resistance at 1.2218. Hourly supports can now be found at 1.2163 (20/03/2014 low) and 1.2148 (intraday low). A key support stands at 1.2104.
In September 2011, the SNB put a floor at 1.2000 in EUR/CHF, which is expected to hold in the medium-term.
Long 3 units at 1.2329, Objs: 1.2660/1.2985/1.3195, Stop: 1.1998 (Entered: 2013-01-23)
GOLD (in USD)
Challenging its key rising trendline.
Gold is challenging the support area given by 1327 and its rising trendline. Hourly resistances for a short-term bounce can be found at 1351 (18/03/2014 low) and 1368 (18/03/2014 high). Another support lies at 1307.
Longer term, the successful test of the key support at 1181 coupled with the break of the resistance implied by the 200 day moving average are positive. However, we are skeptical of a long-term bullish reversal pattern. As a result, we remain cautious given the current overextended rise.
Await fresh signal.
SILVER (in USD)
The support at 20.61 has been broken.
Silver has broken the support at 20.61, opening the way for further weakness. The short-term technical structure is negative as long as prices remain below the resistance at 20.97 (19/03/2014 high). Supports stand at 19.78 and 19.01 (30/01/2014 low).
In the long-term, the trend is negative. However, the potential higher low at 18.84 (31/12/2013 low) and the break of the resistance at 20.52 suggest a phase of stabilisation. A key resistance now stands at 23.09.
Await fresh signal.
This report has been prepared by Swissquote Bank Ltd and is solely been published for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any currency or any other financial instrument. Views expressed in this report may be subject to change without prior notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by Swissquote Bank Ltd personnel at any given time. Swissquote Bank Ltd is under no obligation to update or keep current the information herein, the report should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
USD/JPY flat-lines below 151.50 after soft Japanese CPI data
USD/JPY stays defensive below 151.50 after the release of a soft Japan's CPI report and mixed Industrial Production and Retail Sales data on Friday. Japanese verbal intervention also weighs on the pair amid the holiday-thinned conditions on Good Friday. US PCE inflation awaited.
AUD/USD buyers lack vigor above 0.6500 amid Good Friday trading lull
AUD/USD is trading listlessly above 0.6500 in the Asian session amid light trading on Good Friday. The Aussie pair shrugs off encouraging comments from China's FX regulator, as price action remains subdued ahead of the US PCE inflation data.
Gold flirts with record highs above $2,230, all eyes on US PCE data
Gold price flirts with record highs around $2,230 during the Asian session on Friday. The uptick of yellow metal is bolstered by the safe-haven flows amidst growing economic concerns and the prospect of interest rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve.
Ripple's move above this key level could trigger nearly 50% rally for XRP
Ripple price has overcome a critical resistance level and flipped into a support floor on the weekly time frame. This development happened while XRP tightly consolidated for roughly 250 days. As this coiling up comes undone, investors can expect XRP to kickstart a massive rally.
Will they won’t they cut rates is the question of Q2?
There has been some significant push back from Fed and Bank of England members around the timing of rate cuts, and the Bank of Japan still haven’t physically intervened in the FX market to stem yen weakness although they are threatening to do so.