NFP numbers expected to show limited or no improvement in September

Opinions of analysts on the outcome of the upcoming NFP report, due out October 7, are divided. The majority sees a slight improvement, following the disappointing August reading. "I would expect a limited improvement for September" says Valeria Bednarik, who situates the number of added jobs around 50.000; Adam Narczewski indicates a range of 30.000-50.000, while Dr. S. Sivaraman and Ilian Yotov prove to be somewhat more optimistic with their forecasts of 45.000-75.000 and 80.000, respectively.

NFP Forecast

Some experts however think that the employment situation in the US has not improved or it might have even deteriorated slightly
. Worsening economic conditions and recent unfavorable employment data incline Alberto Muñoz towards a pessimistic conclusion that "we should expect a very negative number in NFP, clearly below zero," while Sinan Saleh emphasizes that "U.S. companies have been announcing jobs cuts recently, and that could eventually lead NFP to negative territory."

Obama's jobs-creation package proposed on September 8, is considered a measure which might bear fruit in the long term unless it is "rejected or watered down by Congress," as Yohay Elam remarks, or just serves as a "PR move (presidential elections in 2012) rather than a real recovery plan for the job market" speculates Adam Narczewski, and might be abandoned due to being too costly to carry out.

Read below the complete forecasts and opinions of the experts.

Bill Hubard - Chief Economist at

"We forecast a 100,000 gain in September non-farm payrolls. Jobless claims showed some modest deterioration on a survey week-to-survey week basis, so we look for a sluggish rise in employment. Indeed, the return of 45,000 Verizon workers, who were on strike in August, accounts for nearly 50% of the anticipated payroll gain. Also, the unemployment rate is expected to tick up by 0.1% this month to 9.2%. In general, employers seem to have turned more cautious in the wake of the debt ceiling debacle. Indeed, surveys show that the public’s dissatisfaction with government economic policy is at its highest level in decades. The Labor Department indicated in the latest jobless claims report, however, that hurricane disruptions may have been a significant drag on job growth in September, so we will be looking in the details of the report for any indications of a material weather impact."

Adam Narczewski - Financial Analyst at X-Trade Brokers, XTB:

"The August payrolls reading dissapointed by I do not expect a much better number for September. The U.S labor market has not recovered and for an optimistic NFP reading we will have to wait. I expect a positive number in the 30K-50K range. As for Obama’s job craetion plan, it seems to me it is more of a PR move (residential elections in 2012) rather than a real recovery plan for the job market. Sure, it has some pro-social points (extending the 2% cut in the payroll tax and extend unemployment insurance benefits) but at what cost? Introducing this kind of plan will cost money and from what I remember, the large debt caused the downgrade of the U.S. So the intentions are good, but introducing the plan could be very, very difficult."

Yohay Elam - Analyst at Forex Crunch:

"I believe we will see a small gain in jobs in September, and perhaps some upwards revisions for previous months. The picture in the US isn't too good, but not all is horrible. A drop in jobs cannot be ruled out, and will be depressing. I believe that Obama's job plan will decrease unemployment, but this program might be rejected or watered down by Congress and it will take time to materialize.
The focus of the markets currently leans heavily towards the European debt crisis. Assuming this will stay the same on October 7th, the impact of Non-Farm Payrolls will only be during a limited time frame around the event."

Dr. S. Sivaraman - CEO and owner of

"NFP is expected to be announced on 07th October by 12:30 GMT. the numbers are expected to be improved to the range of 45-75K as market surprise. The measures taken by the president might have an impact on the unemployment rate during this year.
After drop for BOE and ECB events the market is expected to open high and slowly gain levels on 7th October from Japanese session onwards. Before NFP announcement there might be some volatile moves and drop in EURO and GBP, after announcement and during US session volatile  and rise moves may be seen as risk appetite move for the day."

Ilian Yotov - FX Strategist and Founder at AllThingsForex:

"The upcoming Employment Situation report will kick-start the market’s quest to find out if the U.S. economy is really as bad as the Fed’s gloomy outlook painted it to be. As traders dissect all economic data throughout the month of October for signs of strength or weakness ahead of the Fed’s next meeting on November 1-2, the Non-Farm Payrolls could instill some cautions optimism. The U.S. economy is forecast to add up to 80,000 jobs in September, compared with the dismal non-existent job creation in August, while the unemployment rate remains unchanged at 9.1%."

Sinan Saleh - Analyst at

"I really don’t see real improvement in September’s Non-farm payrolls, since economic conditions continued to worsen, and chances of a double dip recession are rising, although we are not quite there yet. U.S. companies have been announcing jobs cuts recently, and that could eventually lead NFP to negative territory. I expect the NFP to rise between 20K- to 30K in September. As for Obama’s jobs plan, I don’t think it will reduce the unemployment rate over the long term, since it will take a lot more money to reduce unemployment significantly and start a strong recovery in the labor market. Nonetheless, Obama’s plan if passed should help kickoff some job growth, and that could prove to be vital for the economy over the coming period."

Alberto Muñoz - Forex Analyst at

"Looking at the recent trend in jobs data and considering that in September many temporary employments expire, we should expect a very negative number in NFP, clearly below zero. Also we should not expect an improvement in unemployment rate due to Obama's jobs creation plan in the long term: while credit is restricted in United States and across the world, the potential benefits of many economic measures will remain limited."

Valeria Bednarik - Chief Analyst with

"After past month readings, seems unlikely things can get worse when it comes to the US employment situation. In august, the economy was unable to add new jobs, and NFP print zero; I would expect a limited improvement for September, around market forecast of 50K. Unemployment rate will probably remain steady around 9.1%.
In case of a strong disappointing number, dollar may lose current attractive among in investors, and gave up a good piece of recent gains. A better than expected reading will support current trend yet won’t be enough to convince the world that the worse of the US slowdown is over."
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