Economic Data
- (HU) Hungary Central Bank leaves Base Rate unchanged at 2.10%- (CA) Canada July Retail Sales M/M: -0.1% v 0.5%e; Retail Sales Ex Auto M/M: -0.6% v 0.0%e
- (US) July FHFA House Price Index M/M: 0.1% v 0.5%e
- (MX) Mexico July Retail Sales Y/Y: 2.0% v 1.6%e
- (US) Sept Preliminary Markit US Manufacturing PMI: 57.9 v 58.0
- (US) Sept Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index: 14 v 10e
European indices were broadly weaker this morning, dragging down US futures and setting up for a third consecutive session of equity losses in New York. Indices ran back into positive territory in the first hour of trading, however they have dropped right back into the red mid morning. As of writing, the DJIA is down 0.23%, the S&P500 is down 0.15% and the Nasdaq is flat as the fever in momentum declines seems to have broken for now.
The flash Markit manufacturing PMI data for September was in-line with expectations and up slightly from the August reading. Markit wrote that "the headline Manufacturing PMI index - which is designed to signal changes in prevailing business conditions in the U.S. manufacturing sector - held at the same level as August's 52-month high."
Moderate FOMC voter James Bullard weighed in on the latest move by the Fed. Bullard said it would be natural to drop the considerable time language at the October meeting and said he still sees the first rate hike towards the end of Q1 of 2015.
With Congress unlikely to act on tax reform anytime soon, the Treasury has changed the way it interprets tax law in an attempt to unilaterally make inversions "substantially less appealing." The package includes small steps, including moves to change the way foreign ownership is gauged (companies can invert if foreign stockholders own more than 20%) and to make it harder for parents to extract profits from subsidiaries. Shares of AstraZeneca, Abbvie, Shire, Medtronic, Smith & Nephew and Perrigo are all down on the report.
Tekmira was a big mover yesterday and again this morning, up 16% in total in the two session, but well off its morning highs. Yesterday the firm disclosed that it reached agreement with US and Canadian regulators to use its RNAi Therapeutic against Ebola infection. Last night, it came out that Dr. Rick Sacra, who contracted the Ebola virus in West Africa and was being treated in Nebraska, received the Tekmira treatment and is now nearly well enough to go home. Then this morning, Tekmira said it would join an international consortium to conduct Ebola therapy trials.
Two global fertilizer giants, CF Industries and Yara International of Norway, are discussing a 50/50 merger deal. The combined market value of the companies would be about $27.4 billion, making it worth about as much as Canada's Potash Corp, the world's largest fertilizer producer. CF and Yara are the two biggest nitrogen fertilizer producers. It remains unclear whether the deal would be structured as an inversion.
Looking Ahead
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 4-Week Bills- 13:00 (US) (US) Treasury to sell 2-Year Notes
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Aug Trade Balance: No est v $803M prior
- 21:15 (US) Fed's George speaks on the Economy in Cheyenne, Wyoming
- 21:35 (JP) Japan Sept Preliminary Manufacturing PMI: No est v 52.2 prior
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USD/JPY holds gains below 150.00 on the expected BoJ rate hike
USD/JPY holds gains below 150.00, as the Japanese Yen stays vulnerable amid a classic 'sell the fact' trading on the hawkish BoJ decision. The BoJ lifted the interest rate by 10 basis points (bps) from -0.1% to 0% for the first time since 2007 and abandoned the YCC framework.
Gold price flat-lines above one-week low, awaits the crucial Fed decision on Wednesday
Gold price oscillates in a range and is influenced by a combination of diverging forces. Hawkish Fed expectations, elevated US bond yields and a bullish USD cap the upside. Geopolitical risks lend some support to the XAU/USD ahead of the key FOMC meeting.
Bitcoin price shows weakness, but new BTC whales have created solid support at $56,400
Bitcoin price downside momentum continues to gain strength, giving sidelined and late bulls a chance to buy the dip. The market remains focussed on the oncoming halving, expected to kick off the next bull cycle. For the meantime, however, spot BTC ETFs remain the main play in the market.
Lots of tension ahead of this week's Fed decision
Last week, we got a strong round of US economic data accompanied by hotter US inflation reads. The takeaway of course is that there might be a lot more pressure on the Fed to be looking to scale back its rate cut outlook at this week’s meeting.