Volatility Gains on Choppy Trading

Economic Data

- (IE) Ireland May Industrial Production M/M: -2.3% v +9.4% prior; Y/Y: 22.3 v 25.3% prior
- (IN) India May Industrial Production Y/Y: 4.7% v 3.4% prior
- (CA) Canada Jun Net Change in Employment: -9.4K v +20.0Ke; Unemployment Rate: 7.1% v 7.0%e
(MX) Mexico May Industrial Production M/M: 0.1% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 1.6% v 1.9%e
- (MX) Mexico Central Bank (Banxico) leaves overnight rate unchanged at 3.00%, as expected

- US trading has been volatile this morning after yesterday's rollercoaster ride. As of writing, the DJIA si down 0.17%, the S&P500 is down 0.11% and the Nasdaq is up 0.20%.

- Fed hawk Plosser minced no words in an interview on the first day of the Jackson Hole conference. Plosser warned that the Fed was falling behind the curve on rates and said he was afraid the FOMC could find itself in a situation where it was forced to play catchup with markets, raising fed funds faster than markets expected. Plosser's position is that monetary policy needs to react as the Fed gets closer to its objectives and rates need to rise before targets are met.

- WTI crude is falling even lower this morning, down 1.5% today to $101.30. Traders say the continuing slump in summertime gasoline demand and growing stocks at Cushing, OK continues to drive the contract lower.

- In Europe, both Portuguese and EU officials have rushed in to reassure markets that the Banco Espirito Santo situation is a one-off and that contagion would result from a limited situation. Officials from the bank said the firm had plenty of capital on hand. Yields on Portugal's 10-year government debt have come in 12 bps and spreads have narrowed throughout the periphery, and Italy managed to sell €7.5 billion in bonds, the top of its targeted range, at a solid auction. EUR/USD remains around 1.3600.

- Wells Fargo reported a 3% y/y increase in profits for the second quarter, although revenues ticked a bit lower and EPS was flat for the first time in years. The results reflect a decline in provisions for credit losses and slightly lower expenses, both of which helped offset a 39% y/y decrease in mortgage banking income. Mortgage originations were up over the first quarter but down more than 50% y/y. Executives said the pipeline of mortgage originations was better in the firm's third quarter, but still had not returned to pre-crisis levels. Shares of WFC are down 1.0% or so on the day.

- Reynolds American confirmed that it has entered negotiations to acquire Lorillard, following several days of reports about the talks. Imperial Tobacco is also negotiating with both Reynolds and Lorillard to acquire certain brands, to help Reynolds address anti-trust concerns. British American Tobacco, which holds 42% of Reynolds, is included in talks. Shares of LO are up 5%, while RAI is down 1.5%.

- Shares of mortgage insurers fell in the post market yesterday after the FHFA proposed new financial strength regulations for the industry that would likely require firms to strengthen balance sheets. Radian Group said it would need about $850M to meet the standard, although it has two years to do so. MGIC didn't provide a figure and said it faced a "material shortfall." Shares of Radian are down 5% or so and MGIC are down 10%, off their worst levels. 

Looking Ahead

- 14:45 (US) Fed's Lockhart and Evans to speak on U.S. Economy in Jackson Hole