Economic Data

- (IE) Ireland Q3 GDP Q/Q: 0.2% v 0.7%e; Y/Y: 0.8% v -0.5% prior

- (IE) Ireland Nov PPI M/M: 0.8% v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 2.7% v 2.9% prior

- (PT) Portugal Nov Producer Prices M/M: -0.6 v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: 3.8% v 4.6% prior

- (TR) Turkey Central cut Benchmark Repo Rate by 25bps to 5.50% (as expected) and left Overnight Lending and Borrowing Rates unchanged at 9.00% and 5.00% respectively

- (BR) Brazil Nov Current Account: -$6.3B v -$6.1Be; Foreign Direct Investment: $4.6B v $3.0Be

- (US) ICSC/GS weekly chain store sales w/e Dec 15th w/w: +4.3%; y/y: +3.5%

- (PL) Poland Nov Employment M/M: -0.2% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: -0.3% v -0.2%e

- (PL) Poland Nov Avg Gross Wages M/M: 1.7% v 1.8%e; Y/Y: 2.7% v 2.9%e

- (HU) Hungary Central Bank (NBH) cut the Base Rate by 25bps to 5.75%; as expected

- (US) Q3 Current Account: -$107.5B v -$103.0Be

- (US) Redbook Retail Sales w/e Dec 15th: 2.4% y/y prior; Dec MTD: -0.2% m/m prior; Dec MTD: 2.2% y/y; prior

- (BE) Belgium Dec Consumer Confidence: -25 v -24 prior

- (EU) ECB weekly Forex Reserves w/e Dec 15th: €228.6B v €229.0B prior

- (US) Dec NAHB Housing Market Index: 47 v 47e


- New fiscal cliff negotiating positions from President Obama and House Speaker Boehner out overnight spurred a rather tepid US equity rally this morning. The December NAHB index, which hit its highest level since April 2006, was certainly a very positive factor around 10:00ET. But it was Boehner's significant shift at his 10:15ET press conference that really set things off. At that time, Boehner defined a "balanced" solution as one with matching amounts of new revenue and spending cuts, a significant shift from his previous that spending cuts should be larger than revenue gains.

- If anything, the new plans show that both sides are still talking and may be willing to compromise. Obama is now looking for $1.2T in additional revenue (down from $1.4T prior request) matched by $1.2T in cuts. The president also is said to have proposed a tax rate threshold of $400K, up from $250K prior. Boehner's tax threshold is now for earners making $1M or more. Boehner met with his caucus this morning and called Obama's latest offer not balanced.

- With risk on, the greenback has weakened through the US session. EUR/USD has broken above the 1.3170 highs last seen back in early September to trade around 1.3228, while USD/JPY stayed below the 84 handle. Spot gold has given up most of the gains seen during yesterday's session to trade around $1,692.

- There has been more fallout from Friday's Connecticut school massacre this morning. Private equity name Cerberus Capital Management plans to sell its stake in privately-held gunmaker Freedom Group, which owns the Bushmaster brand. Note that Bushmaster manufactures the weapon used by shooter Adam Lanza. In addition, Dicks Sporting Goods suspended sales of "modern sporting rifles" nationwide.

- Steel names Nucor and Steel Dynamics offered Q4 guidance ahead of the upcoming earnings season. Nucor's Q4 outlook was typically weak, however Steel Dynamics managed to offer an outlook in line with expectations. STLD was up more than 11% at one point this morning, while NUE gained more than 6%.

Looking Ahead

- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell $40B in 4-Week Bills
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $35B in 5-Year Notes
- 13:15 (US) Fed's Fisher
- 14:00 (US) Fed to sell $7.00-8.00B in Notes
- 16:30 (US) Weekly API U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
- 18:50 (JP) Japan Nov Merchandise Trade Balance: -¥1.0T v +¥549B prior