Happy New Year to everybody! And it was indeed a promising start to the year, first and foremost for risky assets – which bodes well for our multi-month outlook of a looming "great asset reallocation". The data releases since the turn of the year were overall constructive for our guardedly optimistic 2013 macro view as well, also allowing the ECB (and the BoE) to remain on the sidelines at its meeting today.
Next week's numerous industrial production reports will unfortunately continue to contain a lot of noise. So do not read too much into these figures, especially into that for the EMU to be released next Monday. We expect a meager plus for November, which is by no means able to offset the 4% decline over the previous two months. However, this should be followed by a convincing sustainable recovery from December onwards.
This improvement would come too late to save 4Q12 – for which we see real EMU GDP having contracted 0.4%, with risks tilted to the downside. But it is in line with our forecast of economic stabilization starting this year, which is already implied by rising sentiment figures. Italy will lag the regional pattern by roughly one quarter.
While the UK's industrial report should deliver the expected technical rebound tomorrow, the US headline number (out next Wednesday) will be dampened by poor utility results. But manufacturing should have advanced solidly again, thus supporting our expectation of an ongoing US recovery – driven by a rebound in housing and business spending.
China’s 4Q12 GDP report to be published on Friday next week should confirm that the seven-quarter-long economic slowdown has run its course. We expect the economy to have grown by 7.6% yoy (3Q12: +7.4%). Recent sentiment as well as activity data suggest that a moderate recovery is under way, with domestic demand being the growth pillar.
Our recommendations are based on information obtained from, or are based upon public information sources that we consider to be reliable but for the completeness and accuracy of which we assume no liability. All estimates and opinions included in the report represent the independent judgment of the analysts as of the date of the issue. We reserve the right to modify the views expressed herein at any time without notice. Moreover, we reserve the right not to update this information or to discontinue it altogether without notice.
This analysis is for information purposes only and (i) does not constitute or form part of any offer for sale or subscription of or solicitation of any offer to buy or subscribe for any financial, money market or investment instrument or any security, (ii) is neither intended as such an offer for sale or subscription of or solicitation of an offer to buy or subscribe for any financial, money market or investment instrument or any security nor (iii) as an advertisement thereof. The investment possibilities discussed in this report may not be suitable for certain investors depending on their specific investment objectives and time horizon or in the context of their overall financial situation. The investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investors may get back less than they invested. Changes in rates of exchange may have an adverse effect on the value of investments.
Furthermore, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. In particular, the risks associated with an investment in the financial, money market or investment instrument or security under discussion are not explained in their entirety. This information is given without any warranty on an "as is" basis and should not be regarded as a substitute for obtaining individual advice. Investors must make their own determination of the appropriateness of an investment in any instruments referred to herein based on the merits and risks involved, their own investment strategy and their legal, fiscal and financial position. As this document does not qualify as an investment recommendation or as a direct investment recommendation, neither this document nor any part of it shall form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with or act as an inducement to enter into, any contract or commitment whatsoever. Investors are urged to contact their bank's investment advisor for individual explanations and advice.
Neither UniCredit Bank AG, UniCredit Bank AG London Branch, UniCredit Bank AG Vienna Branch, UniCredit Bank AG Milan Branch, UniCredit Securities, UniCredit Menkul Değerler A.Ş., UniCredit Bulbank, Zagrebačka banka, UniCredit Bank, Bank Pekao, Yapi Kredi, UniCredit Tiriac Bank, ATFBank nor any of their respective directors, officers or employees nor any other person accepts any liability whatsoever (in negligence or otherwise) for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith.
Have you noticed?
Bigger images, less text, more content. We have renewed our homepages layout. Have a look!
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Opinions expressed at FXStreet are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of FXStreet or its management. FXStreet has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any independent author: errors and Omissions may occur.Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website, by FXStreet, its employees, partners or contributors, is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. FXStreet will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.