Dukascopy Bank Team
Dukascopy Bank SA
USD/TRY 4H Chart: Triangle
Comment: USD/TRY has recently broken through the 15-month up-trend, which implies a strong negative long-term bias. In addition, there is a triangle emerging after a sell-off, further strengthening the case for weakening Dollar. USD/TRY is expected to close beneath 2.93 and resume the decline. And while the rate is highly likely to pass through the monthly S1 and February 4 low, bears might find it difficult to push the price beneath the 2.87/2.86 demand area. There, apart from the weekly S3 and December low, is the 200-day SMA. On the other hand, even if the Greenback jumps above 2.94, there is a nearly impenetrable supply area between 2.9850 and 2.98 that should trigger active selling.
USD/NOK 4H Chart: Channel Down
Comment: The value of the Dollar failed to rise above nine kroner last month, and now the US currency is in a distinct down-trend. The channel implies that USD/NOK will bounce off of 8.60 and thus will start a new bearish wave. However, we have a strong case against the decline. The reason to be bullish is the 18-month rising support line at 8.52, reinforced by the weekly and monthly S1 levels, and this argument seems to trump any other we currently have. The risks are heavily skewed in favour of a rally towards 8.76, where the monthly pivot point is joined by the 200-period SMA. In the meantime, below 8.52, the pair will probably aim for 8.32, namely the 200-day SMA.
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.
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