AUD/CAD 4H Chart: Descending Triangle?

AUD/USD 1H Chart: Channel Up

Comment: AUD/USD is above the long-term moving average and is trading within the boundaries of the bullish channel. However, the chances are that the latest recovery from 0.6920 (Jan 26 low) will be stopped by supply circa 0.7180. There the pair is to meet the trend-line that performed the role of the lower boundary of the triangle, which in turn has recently been broken to the downside (daily chart). Accordingly, despite the buy signals in the hourly chart, the longer-term timeframe implies a sell-off from 0.7180, most likely after the Australian Dollar rebounds from 0.7020/00. At the same time, the Aussie is overbought in the SWFX market—74% of open positions are long.

AUD/CAD 4H Chart: Descending Triangle?

Comment: The situation in the four-hour chart of AUD/CAD is ambivalent. From one side, the pair is forming a descending triangle, from another—a symmetrical one, and both patterns imply different scenarios. Thus, we focus on two key levels: on parity from above and on 0.9850 from below. In case the former is breached, the outlook will become bullish with the first target at 1.0090/75, followed by the last year’s peak at 1.0170. On the other hand, if the bears manage to push the price beneath 0.9850, the outlook will become bearish, and in the medium term we will expect the rate to descend down to the trend-line at 0.9550, which was formed in 2015 during the Sep-Nov period.

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