Dukascopy Bank Team
Dukascopy Bank SA
AUD/CAD 4H Chart: Channel Up
Comment: We hold a bullish outlook on AUD/CAD. The main reason is that the currency pair has formed a high-quality ascending channel, but the market is also net short—62% of traders are bears. The Australian Dollar is expected to rebound from the support trend-line at 0.9860 and extend the ensuing rally up to 1.01. Further advancement in under question because of strong resistance at 1.01, represented by the upper boundary of the pattern and January high. However, the technical indicators are mixed. In case 0.9860 is breached, the bears could push the price back to the Dec 9 low at 0.9754, while additional demand is supposed to be at 0.9620, implied by the 200-period SMA.
AUD/NZD 4H Chart: Channel Down
Comment: It is more likely than not that the Aussie is going to keep losing ground against its New Zealand counterpart. In addition to the pair trading within the downward-sloping channel, most of the technical indicators are pointing south. At the same time, we see that the Australian Dollar is heavily overbought—73% of open positions are long. The immediate ceiling is at 1.07, while the main target is the October low at 1.05.
Meanwhile, if the pair manages to close above the upper trend-line, there appears to be no levels capable of stopping the recovery up until 1.0880/60, where the weekly R1 merges with the monthly PP and the long-term moving average.
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.
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