Dukascopy Bank Team
Dukascopy Bank SA
EUR/TRY 4H Chart: Channel Down
Comment: EUR/TRY offers a good opportunity to go short the Euro. The currency pair has recently formed a bearish channel and has supposedly completed an upward correction, which implies a sell-off from 1.2490 down to 2.85. Beneath this level the price should be aiming for 2.78, namely for the Apr low.
In the meantime, we should note that the bulls keep resisting a decline, and there is still a significant upside risk present in the market. In this case we will look at the Jul 9 high (2.9873) as the next potential target. The SWFX traders seem to share the negative bias, as the distribution of positions is in favour of shorts that currently take up 73% of the market.
USD/SGD 4H Chart: Channel Up
Comment: This is rather a potential channel than an actual pattern, but there still is likely to be an extension of losses during the next few weeks. The base case scenario is a decline down to the green support trend-line and a new rally from there. USD/SGD may bottom out a little higher, being that there are strong demand levels at 1.35 (200-period SMA) and at 1.3467 (monthly PP). At the same time, if the price suddenly rebounds and closes above resistance at 1.3750 (up-trend and Jul 20 high), the bulls will be expected to continue pushing the US Dollar until the exchange rate reaches Mar high at 1.3940. Meanwhile, the SWFX sentiment is distinctly positive: 66% of open positions are long.
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.
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