Dukascopy Bank Team
Dukascopy Bank SA
EUR/PLN 4H Chart: Channel Down
Comment: Following high levels of volatility late last year and early 2015 EUR/PLN entered a moderate down-trend. The channel itself implies a bearish outlook on the Euro. However, since the pair has recently confirmed the lower boundary of the pattern, this is a good reason to be long the common currency as long as we are at a safe distance from the resistance line at 4.13. Still, there are dangers for a bullish position we should be aware of, such as supply at 4.12 and the technical indicators that suggest a negative bias towards EUR/PLN. Accordingly, it would be more reasonable to short the Euro after the upward correction ends, although at the moment 71% of open positions are long; only 29% are short.
GBP/NZD 1H Chart: Falling Wedge
Comment: The Sterling has been recovering since last Wednesday, but there are indications the bullish momentum is about to give way for a sell-off. GBP/NZD has formed a rising wedge, a reversal pattern, as a correction in a bearish market. Accordingly, we expect the lower trend-line (currently at 1.9712) to be violated eventually. In this case the first target will be the 200-hour SMA at 1.9664, followed by other strong supports at 1.9622 and at 1.9520. On the other hand, should the price close above the resistance trend-line (1.98), the objectives will be 1.9842 and then 1.9900. Violation of the latter level may well result in a rally up to 2.0250. Still, most positions are short, namely 69% of them.
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD clings to daily gains above 1.0650
EUR/USD gained traction and turned positive on the day above 1.0650. The improvement seen in risk mood following the earlier flight to safety weighs on the US Dollar ahead of the weekend and helps the pair push higher.
GBP/USD recovers toward 1.2450 after UK Retail Sales data
GBP/USD reversed its direction and advanced to the 1.2450 area after touching a fresh multi-month low below 1.2400 in the Asian session. The positive shift seen in risk mood on easing fears over a deepening Iran-Israel conflict supports the pair.
Gold holds steady at around $2,380 following earlier spike
Gold stabilized near $2,380 after spiking above $2,400 with the immediate reaction to reports of Israel striking Iran. Meanwhile, the pullback seen in the US Treasury bond yields helps XAU/USD hold its ground.
Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC post-halving rally could be partially priced in Premium
Bitcoin price shows no signs of directional bias while it holds above $60,000. The fourth BTC halving is partially priced in, according to Deutsche Bank’s research.
Week ahead – US GDP and BoJ decision on top of next week’s agenda
US GDP, core PCE and PMIs the next tests for the Dollar. Investors await BoJ for guidance about next rate hike. EU and UK PMIs, as well as Australian CPIs also on tap.