CAD/CHF 1H Chart: Ascending Triangle

EUR/SEK 1H Chart: Ascending Triangle

Comment: EUR/SEK broke the upper limit of the 143-bar long ascending triangle pattern for two times and in both cases the resistance at 6.7691 (one-year high) was capable to contain the rally and push the pair back inside the formation.

At the moment, the instrument is sitting at the 50-hour SMA at 6.7509 that is meandering close to the lower boundary of the triangle. Considering a moderate bearishness on the SWFX – over 57% of all orders are short – we may expect the pair to dive below the short-term SMA that in fact is the last defence from a downside exit. If this materializes, the currency couple is likely to witness a deep sell-off in the hours to come.

XAU/USD 1H Chart: Channel Up

Comment: The summer brought notable changes to gold’s trend; in particular, the most traded precious metal managed to swing to gains early June after it touched a four-month low of 1,240.70. Shortly after the advance has started, the bullion entered a bullish corridor that now is almost 200-bar long.

Currently, XAU/USD is on the brink of a sharp decline that will confirm that the recent drop below the lower trend-line was a real breakout. However, traders do not support the idea that the current weakness will lead to the bearish exit—more than 67% of them bet on appreciation of the yellow metal.

CAD/CHF 1H Chart: Ascending Triangle

Comment: Since early March, the Canadian Dollar has been tilted upwards against the Swiss Franc but the rally was halted at 0.8363 (a six-month high and upper trend-line of the ascending triangle) that has been acting as an impenetrable ceiling for the last 143 hours. Given that the pair is on the verge of diving below the lower limit of the formation at a time when the apex is near, this formidable resistance is likely to remain unattainable. At the same time, SWFX numbers belie the bearish view – about 75% of traders are bullish.

USD/PLN 1H Chart: Triangle

Comment: Although USD/PLN broke out of the 120-bar long triangle around 15 hours ago, we have not seen any considerable changes in the pair’s tendency yet. It seems the pair remained locked in a 110-pips wide corridor formed by its short-and long-term SMAs; the currency couple was trapped by this channel after a notable drop performed on Jun 20.

Despite the recent slide beneath the 50-hour SMA at 3.0481, the pair is likely to withstand selling pressure and return to the area restricted by its SMAs, given that more than two-thirds of market participants on the SWFX hold the bullish view on the instrument.