EUR/AUD 1H Chart: Channel Up

USD/RUB 1H Chart: Triangle

Comment: As a result of the U.S. Dollar weakness versus the Russian Ruble that started somewhere in mid- April, the pair formed an 89-bar long triangle that has a strong bearish bias due to a sharp downward slope of the upper boundary.

Now the pair is trading near the apex that will be attained later in the day. Taking into account the SWFX data – over 81% of market participants hold short positions – the upcoming breakout is likely to be a bearish one. Technical indicators also support this scenario, pointing to a possible depreciation of USD/RUB in the short– and medium-term.

AUD/CHF 1H Chart: Channel Down

Comment: A jump to a one-year high performed by AUD/CHF provoked a rapid decline that took place inside a downward sloping corridor. Last 89 hours allowed the pair to touch the channel’s limits several times; however, recently the upper limit of the tunnel has failed to withstand the test since the currency couple managed to surpass the trend-line and now is attempting to settle above this level. Traders believe the endeavour may be successful; in other words, a bullish breakout followed by a rally may happen. According to the SWFX, almost two-thirds of all orders are placed to buy the pair.

EUR/AUD 1H Chart: Channel Up

Comment: Although EUR/AUD was a subject to buying pressure during the last 89 hours, it did not manage to remain for a long time within the boundaries of the channel up pattern started on Jun 20.

A few hours earlier, the pair exited the formation and currently is vacillating under the lower trend-line. Now it is a hard time for EUR/AUD to rise and the situation is not likely to change in future given a strong bearish sentiment on the SWFX – around 70% of positions are short. Hence, we may witness a drop that may be slowed down at several levels, namely 1.4435/14 (daily S1; four-hour S1, S2), 1.4398/2 (daily S2; four-hour S2) and 1.4359 (daily S3).

USD/NOK 1H Chart: Triangle

Comment: The recent decline below the lower limit of the 123-bar long triangle pattern shaped by USD/NOK may be real breakout capable of sending the pair farther from a four-month high near which it is trading now. The idea that the exit is likely to lead to a massive sell-off is propped up by the SWFX sentiment – more than 75% of traders bet on depreciation of the pair. Furthermore, the pair has almost reached the apex that lies several bars ahead. Meanwhile, technical indicators send mixed signals—’sell’ in the short-term and ‘buy’ in the medium– and long-term.