Dukascopy Bank Team
Dukascopy Bank SA
XAU/USD 1H Chart: Rising Wedge
Comment: Apparently, the 200-hour SMA, a potentially tough line to breach, did not turn out to be a nuisance when XAU/USD was forming a rising wedge. A recovery from a low of 1,273.23 did not encounter any particular difficulties while crossing the long-term moving average, but instead was consistently respecting two converging trend-lines, an intersection point of which is not that far any more.
Right now the pair is moving away from the lower trend-line towards the upper boundary of the pattern at 1,354.44, where it is expected to start forming another leg down.
USD/HKD 1H Chart: Channel Down
Comment: During the past 170 hours USD/HKD has been trading beneath the falling trend-line, respecting it on many occasions. This may signify that the currency pair is fluctuating within a bearish channel; however, there is no yet a reliable lower boundary of the formation. There is a potential trend-line, but there are too few confirmations of it at the moment.
In any case, the outlook on the pair is fairly bearish. Firstly, it has just bounced off the resistance at 7.7557. Secondly, most of the technical indicators are giving ‘sell’ signals, especially on a daily chart. A serious bullish correction is expected to start somewhere below 7.7539.
EUR/TRY 1H Chart: Channel Down
Comment: More than 250 hours ago EUR/TRY failed to sustain the rally, topping out at 2.5884. Since then the currency pair has been posting lower peaks and lower valleys, creating the bearish channel.
It is noteworthy that the 200-hour SMA had a major influence on the price throughout the formation of the pattern and is expected to remain topical in the future. Meanwhile, it is highly likely the Euro will start depreciating from the current levels, being that it has just completed the upward correction and should now move in the direction of the major trend, namely south. However, it may take some time for EUR/TRY to fully erode the 200-hour SMA at 2.5653.
USD/CAD 1H Chart: Channel Down
Comment: During the whole July USD/CAD was declining, losing three and a half figures. Then, for a relatively short period of time the pair was undergoing a bullish correction, but has recently resumed trending downwards in the channel down pattern.
While the technical indicators are mixed and do not give a clear signal regarding the future behaviour of the currency pair, a recent breach of the 200-hour SMA and then a subsequent confirmation of the resistance at 1.0351 give a reason to suspect that the U.S. Dollar is going to continue underperforming relative to its Canadian counterpart.
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.
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