KEY EVENTS TO WATCH ON TUESDAY

AUD: RBA Assist Gov Kent Speaks (00:00 GMT), Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (01:30 GMT)
JPY: BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks (05:30 GMT)
GBP: CPI (08:30 GMT)
EUR: German & Euro Zone’s ZEW Economic Sentiment (09:00 GMT)
CAD: Manufacturing Sales (12:30 GMT), BOC Gov Poloz Speaks (16:45 GMT)
USD: PPI (12:30 GMT)
TRADE IDEAS

EUR/USD showed a series of higher lows. However, the bears are quite persistent, and the pair once again turned down from the 200-hour MA. Euro met resistance of the Ichimoku Cloud on H4 and may test the lower Bollinger band at $1.2890. Below this level euro will be vulnerable for a slide to $1.2850 – this is our base scenario. Forecasts for the euro zone’s data due tomorrow are negative. A return above $1.2962 is needed to switch the outlook to bullish with $1.3015 in sight.

GBP/USD managed to close the last week’s gap, but faced resistance at $1.6275 on Monday. Market participants remain nervous ahead of the Scotland’s Independence referendum on Thursday. Don’t miss the inflation data on Tuesday: UK annualized CPI growth is forecasted to slow from 1.6% to 1.5%. Negative surprise could resume the GBP selloff. However, hawkish BOE monetary policy minutes on Wednesday could render some support to the currency.

USD/JPY consolidates slightly below the Friday’s 107.30 high. The BOJ Governor Kuroda will hold a speech on Tuesday. However, this week trader’s attention will be glued to the FOMC meeting on Wednesday – disappointing tone of the Fed will trigger a strong bearish correction. Support lies at 106.60, 106.00 and 105.70.

AUD/USD
opened today with a 30-pip gap down on poor data from China and Australia, but then moved higher after finding support in the $0.9000 area. Tomorrow Aussie will trade under impact of the RBA minutes. We view the downtrend as strong, but see some room for correction. Resistance is at $0.9060, $0.9100 ahead of $0.9180. The next downside target is at $0.8950.

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EUR/USD faces a minor resistance near at 1.0750

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Bitcoin price continues to get rejected from $65K resistance as SEC delays decision on spot BTC ETF options

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The dollar strengthened, and stocks fell after statistical data from the US. The focus was on the preliminary estimate of GDP for the first quarter. Annualised quarterly growth came in at just 1.6%, down from the 2.5% and 3.4% previously forecast.

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