Vladimir Mihaylov
Independent Analyst
Another week another fresh EUR low. The EU currency hit the 1.2220 resistance which is the Monthly SMA200 too. There are only a few trading days of 2014 and just one support standing - this is the area 1.2060-1.2080. Currently the pair is stongly bearish on all time frames an this state will remain until the price is below 1.2270 which is the first Daily resistance, the second one is 1.2320 and finally 1.2360-1.2385. Today is expected some worse data from Germany, and for the rest of the week we also do not have any EUR supporting news, so we may not see a profit taking ahead of Chistmas, but keep this in mind.
GOLD has tested the support 1191 and even made an attempt to break it lower, luckily the Senkou Span A has stopped bears at 1183 and now the price is close to 1200 again, but still doesn't show bullish recovery signs. The outlook will remain consolidation with bearish tone until we are above 1210. It is possible to stay below 1200 for the next 10 days too. First resistance is 1212 and the second one is 1232. Below 1186 gold may drop to 1168.
NZD is currently in a consolidation but shows some signs of recovery to the upside, but to confirm recovery we need to break above 0.7760 on H4 frame. The final resistance is 0.7820 and if broken the upside will be fully restored and followed by attempt to break the Daily negative cloud.
AUD has just started the recovery, this is what my model says, but the recovery is still very unstable. First resistance is 0.8190 and then 0.8230. Only a Daily close above the second will reverse the bearish outlook. For now we remain bearish despite the started tiny upside recovery.
JPY has lost its price again and the pair returned back above 119.00 which is the main Daily support. We are bullish above it and will try to record a fresh high in the near future, and if it is not successful we shall form a 'double top' which may lead to a downside correction. But we need some more time to see what will happen, for now as long as we are above 119.00 go long.
GBP is in a consolidation too, i prefer to stay away from the market here as there is no any hints about what will happen next. Indicators are flat and only above 1.5650 we have some chance to progress further to the upside. You have to exit longs below 1.5640, because the pair may easily decide to test support at 1.5560 and below.
RUB has made a significant pullback after hitting the all time high at 78.37. We have the 54.80 support still not broken, if we drop below and close the day, this may be a signal that the upside is over. But i think it will hold and in January we shall have another upside attempt. And if we are unable to reach the all time high, there will be a powerful recovery of the RUB.
For today:
LONG EUR above 1.2245 SL 1.2235 TP 1.2265-1.2285-1.2320
SHORT EUR below 1.2265 SL 1.2275 TP 1.2225-1.2205-1.2190-1.2175-1.2155
LONG GOLD above 1202 SL 1199 TP 1208-1212-1224-1231
SHORT GOLD below 1189 SL 1192 TP 1181-1176-1168
Good luck!
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