Vladimir Mihaylov
Independent Analyst
EUR dropped heaviliy again last Friday following mr.Draghi's speech. It reached 1.2360 again and currently has formed a 'double bottom' formation. However this formation is still unconfirmed. I will consider it confirmed once the price breaks above 1.2465. On double bottom confirmation we shall have a signal for a powerful profit taking and upside recovery to 1.2620. Once above it the upside will continue to 1.2740. For now first strong resistance comes at 1.2470, followed by 1.2510. If the upside recovery fails at either of these bears will take control again. Daily, Weekly and Monthly indicators are bearish, possible target for them is 1.2220 and 1.2160, finally 1.2090. On the other side are H1 and H4, for now they are bullish and show that an upside recovery is going on. You have to watch the resistance levels for now.
GOLD has broken above 1193 and currently is just below 1200 and the resistance 1206. This one has rejected the price last Friday, but as long as 1193 holds the metal preserves the opportunity to attack 1200 level again. So we are bullish above 1193, below that you'd better exit any LONG position. Main support here is 1178, breaking below will look for support close to 1145 and 1132. If we reach there further drop is possible.
NZD continues to move along the H4 Senkou Span A price of the positive Ichimoku and uses it as support line. It seems prepaired for an upside jump. H1 indicators are still mixed, but H4 are turning bullish and the break of 0.7920 will signal for the upside attempt. First target is 0.7960 and next is above 0.8000. First support is at 0.7945 and the last is at 0.7925. A break below the last may target 0.7720 again.
AUD is in a consolidation mode right now with no clear direction. Staying above 0.8680 seems pretty difficult. First resistance comes at 0.8725 and the next one is at 0.8750. I can't see going above these soon, if first is not able to stop the upside, the second will do it. Below 0.8655 bears will try to gain some profit.
JPY weakness seems has no end, only Daily indicators show that bulls are somehow exhausted, and till the end of this month we may have a partly profit taking to 116.50 of 114.60 for example. However as long as we are above 117.60 nothing is changed and we are still heavily bullish. Upside targets are 118.40 and 119.10.
GBP is currently above the 1.5640 support which is the only hope for any recovery. To the upside we have many resistances starting with 1.5730, then 1.5770, 1.5830, 1.5890 and finally 1.6020. Once below 1.5640 the pair easily will slide to 1.5600 and maybe below.
RUB gained back some of the lost positions due to partly profit taking. the price is still above 45.25 and the bullish tone is preserved despite the recent RUB's recovery. USD seems not giving up and soon the pair's upside may be restored. Downside will continue only if we break below 44.50.
For today:
SHORT EUR below 1.2385 SL 1.2400 TP 1.2350-1.2330-1.2310
LONG EUR above 1.2390 SL 1.2380 TP 1.2420-1.2450-1.2475-1.2490-1.2520
LONG GOLD above 1193 SL 1190 TP 1206-1212-1218-1224-1228
SHORT GOLD below 1178 SL 1181 TP 1168-1156-1144-1135
Good luck!
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