Vladimir Mihaylov
Independent Analyst
EUR has made a jump after FOMC meeting and has reached 1.3870 resistance. It is currently trading close to the 1.3850 support area and seems that dollar weakness has no end. For now the EUR performance is quite good and a Weekly close above 1.3900 will set the next target at 1.4060 for the next week. However there is one last resistance standing - 1.3965. But if we take a look on Monthly frame we can see how powerful that last resistance is. There is a flat Senkou Span B line at that price, and the cloud is negative turning to the downside. This means that a sharp drop is going to follow in the next 2 to 3 months at least to 1.3300. But now the EUR bulls are optimistic because of FED's "no rate hike soon" policy and may push the EUR above 1.4100 for a week or two through April and May. Let's now go back to the smaller frames, as long as we are above 1.3800 we are bullish. So you'd better try Long positions than Short ones. H4 may retrace to 1.3825 before new upside test. Main support is at 1.3800, main resistance is 1.3870.
GOLD is at a reversal point 1315-1318, upside break of this will target 1334 and 1362. main support here is 1297. Below that support the metal will test 1285 and if that is not able to hold the downside we may test 1260. However i think the upside scenario here is more likely.
NZD has recorded a fresh top at 0.8744. H4 is bullish but retracement to 0.8700 is possible. Enter LONG close to 0.8700 but not below 0.8695. Next possible target is 0.8841 which was the price on 31.07.2011.
AUD has joined all its friends against the dollar and also recorded a fresh high at 0.9440. Enter LONG here above 0.9370. below 0.9370 the price may correct to 0.9300. Indicators on Daily and H4 are bullish while on H1 are in a correction mode.
JPY puts a knife in the Dollar's back. The situation here tells that the Dollar will look for support close to 101.00 and 100.80 levels where is the SMA200 support. Area around 101 has bounced several downside moves and i expect this time to bounce to the upside again. Try to enter long on a dip to 101.00
GBP jumps ahead of BoE today, no change in the bank's policy is expected. The price is attacking the 17.02.2014 top at 1.6822, we have all chances to record a fresh high for today. Although the pair may correct to 1.6770, above 1.6750 the pair remains bullish and may enter Long above 1.6750. only a break below will change the outlook and you'd better exit Long-s.
For today:
LONG EUR above 1.3820 SL 1.3805 TP 1.3870-1.3890-1.3925
SHORT EUR below 1.3960 SL 1.3975 TP 1.3900-1.3870-1.3820
LONG GOLD above 1318 SL 1314 TP 1326-1332-1345-1352
SHORT GOLD below 1308 SL 1312 TP 1299-1292-1286
Good luck!
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