Vladimir Mihaylov
Independent Analyst
After another test of 1.3850 support the EUR recovered almost 90 pips back to 1.3937 on Friday, but further progress was impossible. Again for the EUR recovery helped bad US data. I expect the EUR to continue to move above 1.3850 until FED's meeting on Wednesday. All eyes are on FED, will they continue tapering program or will make a delay. Making a delay will send the EUR above 1.4000, while another stimulus cut is going to kill the bulls. We have a support at 1.3900 then at 1.3885 and finally at 1.3850. If that is broken too the pair will look for support around 1.3800-1.3780. Ahead of FED's meeting we may face some profit taking and further EUR downside to 1.3820 for example.
GOLD continues to record fresh highs and it reached 1392 with today's opening. GOLD is very bullish and will become bullish on all frames above 1286. With geopolitical games between Russia and the USA the metal's price is going to jump more and more higher. Next target is 1400-1406. Currently we have entered the negative weekly Ichimoku but dropping below 1275 will increase the downside pressure and the price will make a correction to 1350 at least.
NZD feels comfortable above the recent won support at 0.8525 and even has tried its luck above 0.8600. However this is pretty high and the price returned back to 0.8550. To continue the upside we need to go above 0.8560, if unsuccessful the move will reverse back to 0.8520 and 0.8480.
AUD is in an another attempt to gain control over the 0.9100 resistance and to make it a support from which to attack the SMA200 resistance at 0.9160. Further dollar weakness is needed to progress above 0.9100. For now still the resistance there is strong, but the pair moves with a bullish tone towards it.
JPY failed to kill the dollar bulls and USD still preserves the chances for recovery. The pair is again in a flat consolidation with 101.10 support line and 103.10 resistance line. Middle support-resistance is 102.30.
GBP continues to move close to 1.6600 and every dip to 1.6580 is used for opening new LONG positions. Noone sells here too. First resistance is coming at 1.6670, then 1.6720 and 1.6800. Support is at 1.6580-1.6560 and then 1.6450.
For today:
LONG EUR above 1.3850 SL 1.3835 TP 1.3910-1.3930-1.3960
SHORT EUR below 1.3905 SL 1.3920 TP 1.3875-1.3850
LONG GOLD above 1286 SL 1281 TP 1392-1398-1404
SHORT GOLD below 1405 SL 1408 TP 1394-1386-1364
Good luck!
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