Vladimir Mihaylov
Independent Analyst
EUR has made a quick test of 1.3830 but didn't stay there for long and returned back above 1.3850. This move shows that the bulls watch carefully the situation and do not think of profit taking. However the level 1.3870 seems to be a strong resistance which needs strong fundamental factor to break. Today we have no such news, except the Federal Budget Ballance which is expected to be a lot worse than previous. Since yesterday's drop to 1.3833 the pair consolidates is a 20 pips range and it is quite difficult to determine the correct direction of movement for the next hours. H4 close above 1.3870 will give a fresh impulse to bulls and they will try to test 1.3900 once again. We have important support at 1.3820-30 and then at 1.3790-1.3805. Breaking below 1.3790 will target 1.3710 and 1.3670. To the upside above 1.3870 we have the 1.3900 resistance and then a quite strong resistance 1.3930-40. This can be broken only if FED puts tapering on hold. Then EUR may reach above 1.4000 level.
GOLD till now has reached first two of my yesterday's targets, reaching just above 1359 this morning. Of course with the weak dollar and the problems with Russia, the metal is quite attractive. We have a resistance at 1362, breaking above will mean entering into the weekly negative Ichimoku. But i think the first time it will reject the price.
NZD is consolidating inside the range of 0.8440-0.8500 and it is going to test the 0.8520 once after building a solid support at 0.8480. For now this seems difficult and the price frequently returns to 0.8440 support. Try LONG above 0.8470 with tight SL
AUD has lost the 0.9000 support and is looking for another at 0.8940, however is may extend to 0.8905. It is quite possible one of these two to be stong enough to bounce the price back above 0.9000 soon.We are still moving inside the Daily negative Ichimoku and we are close to the end. Breaking higher is expected till the end of the week.
JPY returned some losses against the dollar and the price went back below 103.00, but this soon will be fixed if the price finds support on its way to 102.50. Breaking below that will put the dollar under pressure and the price will continue to 101.00. To restore the upside we need to be back above 103.10.
GBP didn't change much yesterday, the pair is still in a stand-by mode, waiting for EUR/USD reaction, and as long as there is no any reaction, the pair is too shy to do whatever. We have the visible trade ballance and the NON EU trade ballance releases today for the UK, and the expected values are not good, so upside today will be difficult at least until the mid american session.
For today:
LONG EUR above 1.3865 SL 1.3850 TP 1.3890-1.3910-1.3925-1.3935-1.3950
SHORT EUR below 1.3850 SL 1.3865 TP 1.3830-1.3820-1.3805-1.3790-1.3760
LONG GOLD above 1354 SL1349 TP 1360-1362-1366-1375
SHORT GOLD below 1349 SL 1354 TP 1340-1336-1329-1322-1318-1312
Good luck!
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