Marc Nemenoff
PRICE Futures Group
Financials: Sept. Bonds are curently 6 lower at 138’`5, 10 Yr. Notes 4 lower at 125’05 and 5 Yr. Notes 2.5 lower at 119’03. This will be a busy week for release of economic data, the most important of which will GDP on Wed., FOMC on Wed. and the Monthly Jobs Report on Fri. I expect a continuation of “paring” as it concerns continued Quanitative Easing. Somewhere in the language of the release of FOMC could be a time frame for an expected ending to QE which could indicate a slight bump upwards in yield sometime between late 2014 and mid 2015. We remain spread long the 10 YR. Note/short Bonds.
Grains: Dec. Corn are currently 3’0 higher at 374’6, Nov. Beans 14’4 higher at 1098’0 and Dec. Wheat 3’4 lower at 556’2. We remain long Dec. Corn and have been hanging on with the thinnest of margins with a stop at 363’2 which has come close to being executed several times last week as the market traded within a penny and a half of our price. I am still a little friendly to new crop Beans as the Nov. contract has held recent lows of 1055’0.
Cattle: Friday’s Cattle on Feed Report showed the following: The Placement number was less than expected with other figures in line with expectations. The early call is higher for both Feeder and Live Cattle with the nearby Aug. LC contract expected to be sharply higher as the market takes into consideration the discount to the cash market which purportedly traded in the 162-163.00 area late last week. My only thought on this market is to look around for puts that appear to be cheap.
Silver: Sept. Silver is currently 3 cents higher at 20.67 and Oct. Gold 1.00 higher at 1305.00. We remain long Silver. If you remain long Aug. Gold,either take profits or roll your position into either the Oct. or Dec. contracts and raise your protective sell stop to the 1291.50 level. S&P's: Sept. S&P’s are currently fractionally higher at 1972.00. We continue to hold a combination of short futures and short the Sept. 1900 put.
Currencies: As of this writing the Sept. Euro is currently 5 higher at 1.3438, the Swiss 7 higher at 1.1064, the Yen unchanged a 0.98826 and the Pound 16 higher at 1.6986. We continue to hold short biased positions in the Euro. Keep abreast of sanction news for Russia, this will effect the Euro (am I stating the obvious?).c
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