The ongoing discussions between Athens and Brussels will take us well into next week and possibly longer should the Greeks be able to meet the IMF repayment on April 9th themselves. As such, the downwards pressure on EURUSD might be less over a few sessions. Other news and data releases should be more influential and on top among those are US jobs reports.
It ticks off today with ADP Employment Change, which – as for the NFP – has been healthy reading over a long time. Monthly releases has had a positive surprise element and later revisions even more so. Forecast for today’s release is 225K - up from last month’s 212K. The ADP number is often seen as an indicator to what the NFP on Friday could show. While there is an element of correlation, it is not a very strong one. The reason is that the NFP number is based on the Labour Department’s total survey of new employments within the US while the ADP number derives from a survey of one organisation for Employers representing a smaller part of the US labour market.
The ISM Manufacturing Survey has its PMI index as the headline grabber. But there are also four other components of this Survey released today – as is the case for ISM Non-Manufacturing. One of them is an Employment Index, which also should be paid attention to. The one for ISM Non-Manufacturing is an even better one to follow as the Services sectors account for 70% of US employees.
Tomorrow we get the weekly Jobless Claims numbers – both initial and continuing. To look at the average initial jobless claims over the last four weeks is another useful indicator when building some expectations for Friday’s NFP release.
Friday a set of US jobs reports are out. The one markets tend to favour is the Nonfarm Payrolls number, a headline grabber and one to cause volatility upon and in the aftermath of its release. But also the Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings and the Participation rate are influential in terms of volatility and even more so in terms of a direction for USD after the release.
These releases over the three days to come are influential on USD and EURUSD not only from an assessment to the strength of the US economy but also in terms of how soon one would expect the FOMC to change the Fed Funds rate.
It ticks off today with ADP Employment Change, which – as for the NFP – has been healthy reading over a long time. Monthly releases has had a positive surprise element and later revisions even more so. Forecast for today’s release is 225K - up from last month’s 212K. The ADP number is often seen as an indicator to what the NFP on Friday could show. While there is an element of correlation, it is not a very strong one. The reason is that the NFP number is based on the Labour Department’s total survey of new employments within the US while the ADP number derives from a survey of one organisation for Employers representing a smaller part of the US labour market.
The ISM Manufacturing Survey has its PMI index as the headline grabber. But there are also four other components of this Survey released today – as is the case for ISM Non-Manufacturing. One of them is an Employment Index, which also should be paid attention to. The one for ISM Non-Manufacturing is an even better one to follow as the Services sectors account for 70% of US employees.
Tomorrow we get the weekly Jobless Claims numbers – both initial and continuing. To look at the average initial jobless claims over the last four weeks is another useful indicator when building some expectations for Friday’s NFP release.
Friday a set of US jobs reports are out. The one markets tend to favour is the Nonfarm Payrolls number, a headline grabber and one to cause volatility upon and in the aftermath of its release. But also the Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings and the Participation rate are influential in terms of volatility and even more so in terms of a direction for USD after the release.
These releases over the three days to come are influential on USD and EURUSD not only from an assessment to the strength of the US economy but also in terms of how soon one would expect the FOMC to change the Fed Funds rate.
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