With the narrow passage of new austerity measures by GreekPrime Minister Antonis Samaras and his coalition government, attention will be squarely on the upcoming Euro finance ministers meeting on November 12th. Although many in the market are assuming that this will mark the end of the crisis, the majority remains unconvinced.  Here’s why.  

Greek Budgetary Vote Ahead

Although coalition government representatives were able to muster a 153-128 victory for the new round of austerity, there is still the battle for the country’s budget.  Not as hotly contested as the austerity vote, the budget vote still risks opposition voting down the proposed changes and its estimates – which are projected to reduce the deficit to approximately 5-6% of overall gross domestic product.  And, any broiling contest could see maneuvering once again.  In order for coalition parties to make the necessary winning votes on austerity, several members of coalition parties were expelled ahead of the actual vote.  A budget passage is key to any fiscal backing by Germany, with German leaders requiring the Greek nation to accept its 2013 budget before support can be made.

Troika Report

And then there’s the Troika.

EU finance ministers are likely to wait for the release of the Troika’s most recent report on the Greek nation.  The survey is expected to analyze the country’s efforts in making good on conditions put forth by administrators in obtaining the second bailout two years ago. 

But, there’s a catch. Although preliminary assessments will be available at the November 12th meeting, the final and more detailed report won’t be available until later towards the end of November.  The timing of the preliminary report and comments from German Finance Minister WolfgangSchaeuble allude to an unlikely passing of the bailout disbursement on such a short timeline.  Finance Minister Schaeuble was unable to “see how we can take the decision already next week”, given the timing of the Troika publication. This could pose problems for the Greek nation as it has warned of a cash shortfall as early as November 16th.

Euro Bears Not Done

As a result, given the lingering bearish environment and a still unknown timeline as to the Greek bailout disbursement, it seems that the markets could have to contend with further EU disappointment a little while longer.  This indecision by EU finance ministers could spell further downside potential for EURUSD – which has fallen by 1.38% already in 2012.