GBP/USD: Approaching the support at 1.5394



Bullish breakout at 1.3393.

  • EUR/USD has broken its resistance at 1.3393, opening the way for a move towards the resistance at 1.3520 (13/02/2013 high). Monitor the resistance implied by the short-term declining trendline. Hourly supports can be found at 1.3382 (intraday low) and 1.3306 (15/02/2013 low).

  • In the bigger multi-week time frame we note that the higher low in July 2012 (compared to July 2010) and the recent new high above the strong resistance at 1.3487 (24/02/2012 high) indicates an improvement in the underlying trend. A move towards 1.3791 (measured move implied by the 1.2043 to 1.3172 rise from the retracement at 1.2662) is favoured as long as the rising channel starting from 1.2043 is intact.

Long 3 at 1.3395, Objs: 1.3492/1.3695/1.3985, Stop: 1.3298 (Entered: 2013-02-19).



Approaching the support at 1.5394.

  • GBP/USD is approaching its support at 1.5394 (12/07/2012 low). Hourly resistances are at 1.5550 (15/02/2013 high) and 1.5689 (13/02/2013 high).

  • The medium-term double-top (from 1.5829 to 1.6302) implies a downside risk at 1.5356.

  • In the longer-term, GBP/USD is moving in a horizontal range defined by the strong support at 1.5235 (13/01/2012 low) and the strong resistance at 1.6302 (30/04/2012 high).

Await fresh signal.




  • USD/JPY has broken its hourly support at 93.32 (intraday low), but remains in a horizontal range between the support at 92.23 (15/02/2013 low) and 94.46 (11/02/2013 high). A break to the upside is needed to resume the underlying uptrend.

  • USD/JPY has validated a long-term bullish trend reversal formation by breaking the strong resistance at 85.53 (06/04/2011 high). The first long-term objective is the key resistance at 94.99 (04/05/2010 high) has almost been reached. Another key resistance can be found at 101.45 (06/04/2009 high).

Buy stop 3 at 94.52, Objs: 95.76/99.69/103.48, Stop: 93.28.



Short-term bullish momentum is fading.

  • USD/CHF has breached its support at 0.9202 (15/02/2013 low), suggesting a weakening momentum. Monitor the support at 0.9154 (08/02/2013 low). Hourly resistances can be found at 0.9259 (18/02/2013 high) and 0.9293 (28/01/2013 high).

  • The break of prior support at 0.9423 (18/06/2012 low) has invalidated the succession of higher lows that started in August 2011. The lower low made on 20 December 2012 confirms a bearish bias. A break of the key resistance at 0.9383 (see also declining channel on a daily chart linking the 28 August top with the one made on 13 November) is needed to negate this bias.

Await fresh signal.



Bullish breakout at 1.0100.

  • USD/CAD has broken its resistance at 1.0100. The next resistance is given by the declining channel. Hourly supports can be found at 1.0102 (19/02/2013 low) and 1.0058 (18/02/2013 low).

  • We see the rise from 0.9633 (14/09/2012 low) as a countertrend move. A key resistance is between 1.0232 (25/07/2012 high) and 1.0250 (12/07/2012 high). A test of the support at 0.9633 (14/09/2012 low) is likely in the long-term.

Await fresh signal.



Approaching the resistance at 1.0375.

  • AUD/USD is moving sideways since 7 February. Monitor the support at 1.0227 (12/02/2013 low) and the resistance at 1.0375 (15/02/2013 high). As long as this resistance holds, we favour a decline towards 1.0149. An hourly support can be found at 1.0275 (18/02/2013 low). Another resistance is at 1.0458 (05/02/2013 high).

  • AUD/USD is moving within the medium-term horizontal range defined by the support at 1.0149 (08/10/2012 low) and the resistance at 1.0613 (09/08/2012 high). A break out of this range is required to fuel a longer-term directional bias.

Await fresh signal.




  • GBP/JPY's bounce from its low at 142.77 has, thus far, failed at the 61.8% retracement of its previous decline. Monitor the support implied by 142.77 (15/02/2013 low) and the low of its rising channel.

  • The rising channel still favours a medium-term bullish bias.

  • GBP/JPY has broken its strong resistance at 140.03 (08/04/2011 high). Further long-term strength towards the key resistance at 163.09 (07/08/2009) is likely. A key support is at 139.27 (23/01/2013 low).

Await fresh signal.



Corrective phase underway.

  • EUR/JPY is moving in a short-term declining channel. The resistance at 125.97 (14/02/2013 high, see also the high of the declining channel) has, thus far, held. Another resistance is at 127.71 (06/02/2013 high). Hourly supports can be found at 124.56 (19/02/2013 low) and 122.90 (15/02/2013 low).

  • EUR/JPY has moved above its key resistance at 111.60 (31/10/2011 high). Further long-term strength towards the strong resistance at 139.22 (05/06/2009 high) is likely.

Await fresh signal.



Challenging its recent highs.

  • EUR/GBP rose yesterday and is now challenging the resistance area implied by 0.8687 (05/02/2013 high) and 0.8717 (01/02/2013 high). Hourly supports can be found at 0.8601 (19/02/2013 low, see also rising trendline) and 0.8572 (13/02/2013 low).

  • From a longer-term perspective, the possible false breakout out of the high of the long-term declining trendline (linking the January 2009 peak with the one in July 2011) and the general overbought conditions call for caution.

Await fresh signal.



Consolidating within its declining channel.

  • EUR/CHF is moving within a short-term falling channel. We view the support at 1.2257 as the low of a base formation. Resistances can be found at 1.2387 (13/02/2013 high) and 1.2415 (01/02/2013 high).

  • We generally favour further medium-term upside for EUR/CHF towards the next psychological threshold at 1.30. Another resistance is at 1.3243. The SNB has put a floor at 1.2000 on EUR/CHF, which is expected to hold in the medium-term.

Long 3 at 1.2329, Objs: 1.2660/1.2985/1.3195, Stop: 1.1998 (Entered: 2013-01-23).



Moving within its declining channel.

  • Gold has broken to the downside out of its horizontal range between 1626 (04/01/2013 low) and 1695 (02/01/2013 high). The implied downside risk is 1560. Resistances for a bounce can be found at 1619 (18/02/2013 high) and 1654 (13/02/2013 high). An hourly support lies at 1598 (15/02/2013 low).

  • Gold is in a secular uptrend with strong support at 1523. A strong resistance area can be found between 1791(29/02/2012 high) and 1803 (08/11/2011 high).

Await fresh signal.



Testing the support at 29.24.

  • Silver has, thus far, successfully tested its key support at 29.24 (04/01/2013 low). Resistances for a bounce can be found at 30.17 (18/02/2013 high) and 30.54 (intraday high).

  • Silver, like Gold, has been able to hold above its key long-term support made on September 2011 (i.e. 26.07). The break of the long-term declining trendline favours a lengthy sideways move. Long-term horizontal resistance is at 37.48 (29/02/2012 high).

Await fresh signal.

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