Moving higher towards the strong resistance at 1.3172.

  • EUR/USD has broken its strong resistance at 1.3023 (25/10/2012 high, see also declining trendline). The next resistance is at 1.3140 (17/10/2012 high). Hourly supports can be found at 1.3046 (04/12/2012 low) and 1.3020 (intraday low).

  • The underlying trend is negative (see the succession of lower highs since May 2011 peak). Therefore we expect limited upside potential given the strong resistance at 1.3172 (17/09/2012 high) and the overall overbought conditions.

Await fresh signal.



The declining channel has been broken.

  • GBP/USD has broken its declining channel. A move towards the next key resistance at 1.6178 is likely. Hourly supports are at 1.6086 and 1.6066 (intraday low).

  • GBP/USD is moving in a long-term horizontal range defined by the strong support at 1.5235 (13/01/2012 low) and the strong resistance at 1.6302 (30/04/2012 high).

Await fresh signal.



Bouncing within horizontal range.

  • USD/JPY is moving sideways within its horizontal range between the support at 81.65 and 82.84 (22/11/2012 high, see also declining trendline on a daily chart). An hourly resistance is at 82.37.

  • USD/JPY is likely in a long-term bottoming process. The break of the key resistance at 80.62 (25/06/2012 high) opens the way for further medium-term strength. A strong long-term resistance is at 85.53 (06/04/2011 high).

Await fresh signal.



Recent sideways moves.

  • USD/CHF is in a short-term downtrend. However, it is moving sideways since 29 November. Monitor the hourly resistance at 0.9304 (29/11/2012 high) and the hourly support at 0.9241 (03/12/2012 low). Another resistance can be found at 0.9341.

  • The break of prior support at 0.9423 (18/06/2012 low) has invalidated the succession of higher lows that started in August 2011. Supports can be found at 0.9215 and 0.9043 (01/05/2012 low).

Buy limit 3 at 0.9246, Objs: 0.9307/0.9380/0.9480, Stop: 0.9185.



Still stuck in short-term horizontal range.

  • USD/CAD is moving sideways between the support at 0.9906 and the resistance at 0.9962. However, the succession of lower highs since the 16 November high favours a bearish bias. A key support is at 0.9875.

  • The underlying trend is negative (see mediumterm declining channel in the daily time frame). Therefore, we see the rise from 0.9633 as a countertrend move. A medium-term resistance is at 1.0250 (12/07/2012 high, see also declining trendline on a daily chart).

Await fresh signal.



The resistance at 1.0475/1.0490 is challenged.

  • AUD/USD is challenging the resistance at 1.0475/1.0490. An hourly support is at 1.0434 (intraday low). Another support can be found at 1.0391 (intraday low).

  • The strong resistance area implied by the declining trendline and 1.0613 suggests a limited upside potential.

  • AUD/USD is moving within a medium-term horizontal range defined by the support at 1.0177 (25/07/2012 low) and the resistance at 1.0613 (09/08/2012 high).

Sell limit 3 at 1.0570, Objs: 1.0465/1.0340/1.0210, Stop: 1.0675.



Grinding higher towards the strong resistance at 133.49.

  • GBP/JPY is grinding higher (see short-term rising channel) towards its strong resistance at 133.49 (21/03/2012 high). An hourly resistance is at 132.81. An hourly support can be found at 131.56. A key support is at 130.46 (28/11/2012 low).

  • GBP/JPY has broken its long-term falling trendline that started in April 2010. This breakout calls for further medium-term strength. The next key resistances are at 133.49 and 140.03 (08/04/2011 high).

Await fresh signal.



Challenging the resistance at 108.00.

  • EUR/JPY is challenging the resistance at 108.00. Hourly supports can be found at 107.40 (04/12/2012 high) and 106.77 (03/12/2012 low).

  • EUR/JPY has moved above its long-term downtrend (linking the October 2009 top with the April 2011 top), which favours further longterm strength towards the key resistance at 111.60 (31/10/2011 high).

Await fresh signal.



Grinding higher.

  • EUR/GBP has broken its hourly resistance at 0.8133. The resistance at 0.8148 is challenged. Hourly supports can be found at 0.8129 (intraday low) and 0.8097.

  • The break of the resistance at 0.8075 favors a rounding bottom. A move towards the resistance at 0.8165 (22/10/2012 high) is expected.

  • A potential bullish head and shoulders could be underway. We need to see a break of the strong resistance at 0.8169 (11/06/2012 high) to validate this pattern and to suggest further medium to long-term strength.

Long 2 at 0.8075, Objs: 0.8159/0.8383, Stop: 0.8075 (Entered: 2012-11-27).



Moving sideways.

  • EUR/CHF has shown signs of strength since 5 September, which increases the likelihood of further medium-term strength.

  •  The SNB has put a floor at 1.2000 on EUR/CHF, which is expected to hold in the medium-term.

  • In the long-term, we remain of the view that if EUR/USD can gather some downside momentum then it may be a step too far for the SNB to hold back the whole FX market.

Long 3 at 1.2121, Objs: 1.2243/1.2380/1.2474, Stop: 1.1998 (Entered: 2012-09-18).



Bouncing after breaking the support at 1705.

  • Gold has broken its support at 1705, opening the way for a move towards the support at 1673. The resistances to monitor for a bounce are 1709 (intraday high) and 1723 (03/12/2012 high).

  • The strong support at 1647 is expected to hold.

  • Gold is in a secular uptrend with strong support at 1523. Monitor the strong resistance area between 1791 and 1803.

Await fresh signal.



Bouncing close to its support at 32.87.

  • Silver has breached its key support at 32.87 (21/11/2012 low) but failed to close below it on a daily basis. Monitor the current bounce. Hourly resistances are at 33.46 (intraday high) and 33.81 (03/12/2012 high).

  • The strong support at 30.23 (30/08/2012 low) is expected to hold.

  • Silver, like Gold, has been able to hold above its key support. The break of the long-term declining trendline favours a lengthy sideways move. Long-term horizontal resistance is at 37.48 (29/02/2012 high).

Await fresh signal.