USD/JPY: Moving sideways



Challenging the resistance at 1.3023.

  • EUR/USD is challenging its strong resistance at 1.3023 (25/10/2012 high, see also declining trendline). An hourly support is at 1.2968 (30/11/2012 low). A key support is at 1.2875 (intraday low).

  • The underlying trend is negative (see declining trendline linking the May 2011 high with the August 2011 high on a daily chart). Therefore we expect limited upside potential from current prices.

Await fresh signal.



The resistance at 1.6043 is challenged.

  • GBP/USD is challenging the resistance at 1.6043 (see also high of the declining channel). An hourly support is at 1.5989 (30/11/2012 low). Another support is at 1.5962 (28/11/2012 low).

  • GBP/USD is likely moving in a long-term horizontal range. The break of the support at 1.5914 (23/10/2012 low) opens the way for a medium-term decline towards at least the support at 1.5755 (28/08/2012 low), as long as prices remain within the declining channel.

Await fresh signal.



Moving sideways.

  • USD/JPY is moving sideways within its horizontal range between the support at 81.65 and 82.84 (22/11/2012 high, see also declining trendline on a daily chart). Monitor the hourly support at 82.22 (29/11/2012 high).

  • USD/JPY is likely in a long-term bottoming process. The break of the key resistance at 80.62 (25/06/2012 high) opens the way for further medium-term strength. A strong long-term resistance is at 85.53 (06/04/2011 high).

Await fresh signal.




  • USD/CHF continues to weaken, but only marginal new lows have, thus far, been made. A test of the key support at 0.9215 is likely. An hourly resistance is at 0.9304 (29/11/2012 high). Another resistance is at 0.9341.

  • The break of prior support at 0.9423 (18/06/2012 low) has invalidated the succession of higher lows that started in August 2011. Supports can be found at 0.9215 and 0.9043 (01/05/2012 low).

Await fresh signal.



Moving sideways.

  • USD/CAD is moving sideways between the support at 0.9906 and the resistance at 0.9962. However, the succession of lower highs since the 16 November high favours a bearish bias. A key support is at 0.9875.

  • The underlying trend is negative (see mediumterm declining channel in the daily time frame). Therefore, we see the rise from 0.9633 as a countertrend move. A medium-term resistance is at 1.0250 (12/07/2012 high, see also declining trendline on a daily chart).

Await fresh signal.



Fading close to the resistance at 1.0475.

  • AUD/USD has failed to break the resistance at 1.0475/1.0480. The subsequent weakness has broken the support at 1.0427 (28/11/2012 low). Monitor the support at 1.0391 (intraday low). An hourly resistance is at 1.0447 (30/11/2012 high).

  • The strong resistance area implied by the declining trendline and 1.0613 suggests a limited short-term upside potential.

  • AUD/USD is moving within a medium-term horizontal range defined by the support at 1.0177 (25/07/2012 low) and the resistance at 1.0613 (09/08/2012 high).

Sell limit 3 at 1.0570, Objs: 1.0465/1.0340/1.0210, Stop: 1.0675.



Close to the strong resistance at 133.49.

  • GBP/JPY has risen above its resistance at 132.45 (26/11/2012 high) but has failed to hold above it. Monitor the strong resistance at 133.49. An hourly support can be found at 131.26 (intraday low). A key support is at 130.46 (29/11/2012 low).

  • GBP/JPY has broken its long-term falling trendline that started in April 2010. This breakout calls for further medium-term strength. The next resistances are at 133.49 and 140.03 (08/04/2011 high).

Await fresh signal.



Approaching the resistance at 108.00.

  • EUR/JPY is getting close to the resistance at 108.00. Hourly supports can be found at 106.77 (intraday low) and 106.21 (intrady low). A key support is at 105.28 (28/11/2012 low).

  • EUR/JPY has moved above its long-term downtrend (linking the October 2009 top with the April 2011 top), which favours further longterm strength towards the key resistance at 111.60 (31/10/2011 high).

Await fresh signal.



Moving higher.

  • EUR/GBP move above its resistance at 0.8114 (27/11/2012 high). Another resistance is at 0.8148. Hourly supports can be found at 0.8097 and 0.8082 (29/11/2012 low).

  • The break of the resistance at 0.8075 favors a rounding bottom. A move towards the resistance at 0.8165 (22/10/2012 high) is expected.

  • A potential bullish head and shoulders could be underway. We need to see a break of the strong resistance at 0.8169 (11/06/2012 high) to validate this pattern and to suggest further medium to long-term strength.

Long 2 at 0.8075, Objs: 0.8159/0.8383, Stop: 0.8075 (Entered: 2012-11-27).



Moving sideways.

  • EUR/CHF has shown signs of strength since 5 September, which increases the likelihood of further medium-term strength.

  • The SNB has put a floor at 1.2000 on EUR/CHF, which is expected to hold in the medium-term.

  • In the long-term, we remain of the view that if EUR/USD can gather some downside momentum then it may be a step too far for the SNB to hold back the whole FX market.

Long 3 at 1.2121, Objs: 1.2243/1.2380/1.2474, Stop: 1.1998 (Entered: 2012-09-18).



Moving sideways.

  • Gold is consolidating after its sharp decline made on 28 November. Monitor the resistance at 1732 (30/11/2012 high). Another resistance is at 1738 (intraday low). A key support is at 1705 (15/11/2012 low).

  • The strong support at 1647 is expected to hold.

  • Gold is in a secular uptrend with strong support at 1523. Monitor the strong resistance area between 1791 and 1803.

Await fresh signal.



The resistance at 34.34 is intact.

  • Silver sharply declined last Friday after failing to break the key resistance at 34.34. The rising trendline has thus far held. A key support is at 32.87 (21/11/2012 low). An hourly resistance is at 33.78 (50% retracement of Friday's decline).

  • The strong support at 30.23 (30/08/2012 low) is expected to hold.

  • Silver, like Gold, has been able to hold above its key support. The break of the long-term declining trendline favours a lengthy sideways move. Long-term horizontal resistance is at 37.48 (29/02/2012 high).

Await fresh signal.

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