GBP/USD: Fading close to the resistance at 1.6043



Declining trendline has thus far held.

  • EUR/USD has thus far faded close to the resistance area defined by the declining trendline and 1.3023 (25/10/2012 high). The hourly support at 1.2944 (26/11/2012 low) has been broken. The next supports are at 1.2875 (intraday low) and 1.2834 (intraday low).

  • The underlying trend is negative (see declining trendline linking the May 2011 high with the August 2011 high on a daily chart). Therefore we expect limited upside potential from current prices.

Await fresh signal.



Fading close to the resistance at 1.6043.

  • GBP/USD is fading close to the resistance at 1.6043 (see also high of the declining channel). Monitor the hourly support at 1.5997 (26/11/2012 low). Another support is at 1.5919 (22/11/2012 low).

  • GBP/USD is likely moving in a long-term horizontal range. The break of the support at 1.5914 (23/10/2012 low) opens the way for a medium-term decline towards at least the support at 1.5755 (28/08/2012 low), as long as prices remain below the resistance at 1.6043 (07/11/2012 high).

Await fresh signal.



Short-term corrective phase underway.

  • USD/JPY is in a short-term corrective phase. Supports are at 81.65 (21/11/2012 low) and 81.09 (19/11/2012 low). Resistances are given by 82.32 (27/11/2012 high, see also the high of the declining channel) and 82.84 (22/11/2012 high).

  • USD/JPY is likely in a long-term bottoming process. The break of the key resistance at 80.62 (25/06/2012 high) opens the way for further medium-term strength. A strong long-term resistance is at 85.53 (06/04/2011 high).

Await fresh signal.




  • USD/CHF is bouncing close to the support at 0.9215. The hourly resistance at 0.9307 (26/11/2012 high) has been broken. The next resistances are at 0.9358 and 0.9392.

  • The break of prior support at 0.9423 (18/06/2012 low) has invalidated the succession of higher lows that started in August 2011. Supports can be found at 0.9215 and 0.9043 (01/05/2012 low).

Await fresh signal.



Intraday bullish reversal close to rising trendline.

  • USD/CAD made a bullish reversal yesterday close to the support implied by the rising trendline. Resistances can be found at 0.9960 (26/11/2012 high) and 0.9992 (21/11/2012 high). An hourly support is at 0.9906 (27/11/2012 low). A key support is at 0.9875.

  • The underlying trend is negative (see mediumterm declining channel in the daily time frame). Therefore, we see the rise from 0.9633 as a countertrend move. A medium-term resistance is at 1.0250 (12/07/2012 high, see also declining trendline on a daily chart).

Await fresh signal.



Fading close to the resistance at 1.0475.

  • AUD/USD made a bearish intraday reversal close to the resistance at 1.0475/1.0480. Supports can be found at 1.0433 (intraday low) and 1.0391 (intraday low).

  • The strong resistance area implied by the declining trendline and 1.0613 suggests a limited short-term upside potential.

  • AUD/USD is moving within a medium-term horizontal range defined by the support at 1.0177 (25/07/2012 low) and the resistance at 1.0613 (09/08/2012 high).

Sell limit 3 at 1.0570, Objs: 1.0465/1.0340/1.0210, Stop: 1.0675.



Challenging the support at 130.80.

  • GBP/JPY is moving sideways since its 22 November high. Monitor the support at 130.80 (23/11/2012 low). Another support can be found at 130.01 (21/11/2012 low).

  • GBP/JPY has broken its long-term falling trendline that started in April 2010. This breakout calls for further medium-term strength. The next resistances are at 133.49 and 140.03 (08/04/2011 high).

Await fresh signal.



Challenging the support at 105.72.

  • EUR/JPY is showing signs of weakness after its sharp rise from 100.33. Monitor the test of the support at 105.72. Another support can be found at 104.10 (21/11/2012 low). An hourly resistance is at 106.58 (intraday high).

  • EUR/JPY is challenging its long-term downtrend (linking the October 2009 top with the April 2011 top). A decisive break would call for further strength towards the key resistance at 111.60 (31/10/2011 high).

Long 2 at 105.30, Objs: 107.60/110.80, Stop: 105.30 (Entered: 2012-11-21).



Weakening within underlying uptrend.

  • EUR/GBP weakened yesterday after posting marginal new highs. Monitor the support area defined by 0.8058 and the rising trendline.

  • The break of the resistance at 0.8075 favors a rounding bottom. A move towards the resistance at 0.8148 (24/10/2012 high) is expected.

  • A potential bullish head and shoulders could be underway. We need to see a break of the strong resistance at 0.8169 (11/06/2012 high) to validate this pattern and to suggest further medium to long-term strength.

Long 3 at 0.8075, Objs: 0.8117/0.8159/0.8383, Stop: 0.8033 (Entered: 2012-11-27).



Moving sideways.

  • EUR/CHF has shown signs of strength since 5 September, which increases the likelihood of further medium-term strength.

  • The SNB has put a floor at 1.2000 on EUR/CHF, which is expected to hold in the medium-term.

  • In the long-term, we remain of the view that if EUR/USD can gather some downside momentum then it may be a step too far for the SNB to hold back the whole FX market.

Long 3 at 1.2121, Objs: 1.2243/1.2380/1.2474, Stop: 1.1998 (Entered: 2012-09-18).



Consolidating after the breakout at 1739.

  • Gold has broken to the upside out of its shortterm horizontal range, which calls for further strength. However, the resistance at 1754 (17/10/2012 high) has thus far held. Monitor the support at 1736 (20/11/2012 high).

  • The strong support at 1647 is expected to hold.

  • Gold is in a secular uptrend with strong support at 1523. Monitor the strong resistance area between 1791 and 1803.

Await fresh signal.



Fading near the resistance at 34.34.

  • Silver weakened close to its resistance at 34.34 (11/10/2012 high) yesterday. The hourly support at 33.91 (26/11/2012 low) has been breached. A key support is at 33.26 (23/11/2012 low).

  • The strong support at 30.23 (30/08/2012 low) is expected to hold.

  • Silver, like Gold, has been able to hold above its key support. The break of the long-term declining trendline favours a lengthy sideways move. Long-term horizontal resistance is at 37.48.

Await fresh signal.

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