GBP/USD: Challenging the resistance at 1.5916

EUR/USD

EURUSD

Testing again the resistance at 1.2790.

  • EUR/USD is approaching the resistance at 1.2790 (09/11/2012 high). Hourly support is at 1.2691 (16/11/2012 low).

  • The break to the downside out of the consolidation from mid-September to November (see triangle) calls for further weakness towards the support at 1.2431 as long as prices remain below the resistance area between 1.2876 and 1.2894.

  • The long-term trend is negative (see declining trendline linking the May 2011 high with the August 2011 high on a daily chart).

Await fresh signal.


GBP/USD

GBPUSD

Challenging the resistance at 1.5916.

  • GBP/USD is bouncing after having broken its key support at 1.5914 (23/10/2012 low). The hourly resistance at 1.5916 has been breached but prices have thus far failed to hold above it. Support is at 1.5829.

  • GBP/USD is likely moving in a long-term horizontal range. The break of the support at 1.5914 (23/10/2012 low) opens the way for a medium-term decline towards at least the support at 1.5755 (28/08/2012 low) as long as prices remain below the resistance at 1.6043 (07/11/2012 high).

Await fresh signal.


USD/JPY

USDJPY

Long-term declining channel has been broken.

  • USD/JPY has broken its resistance at 80.62 and its long-term declining channel. The next resistance is at 81.78. Hourly supports can be found at 80.90 (16/11/2012 low) and 80.76 (intraday low).

  • USD/JPY is likely in a long-term bottoming process. The break of the key resistance at 80.62 (25/06/2012 high) opens the way for further medium-term strength. A strong long-term resistance is at 85.53 (06/04/2011 high).

Await fresh signal.


USD/CHF

USDCHF

Fading again close to the resistance at 0.9502.

  • USD/CHF has thus far failed to break the resistance at 0.9502 (31/08/2012 low). A shortterm corrective phase is underway. A key support is at 0.9381 (07/11/2012 low).

  • The break of prior support at 0.9423 (18/06/2012 low) has invalidated the succession of higher lows that started in August 2011. However, the recent break above the key resistance at 0.9438 favours further short-term strength. The next key resistance is at 0.9660 (22/08/2012 high).

Buy limit 3 at 0.9405, Objs: 0.9455/0.9628/0.9855, Stop: 0.9355.


USD/CAD

USDCAD

Challenging the low of its short-term rising channel.

  • USD/CAD is testing the low of its short-term rising channel. Monitor also the hourly support at 0.9983 (09/11/2012 low). Another support can be found at 0.9947 (08/11/2012 low). An hourly resistance is at 1.0023 (intraday high).

  • The underlying trend is negative (see mediumterm declining channel in the daily time frame). Therefore, we see the rise from 0.9633 as a countertrend move. A medium-term resistance is at 1.0250 (12/07/2012 high, see also declining trendline on a daily chart).

Await fresh signal.


AUD/USD

AUDUSD

Intraday reversal close to the support at 1.0305.

  • AUD/USD made a bullish intraday reversal close to its support at 1.0305 (26/10/2012 low) last Friday. A bounce is now underway. Monitor the resistance area given by 1.0387 (15/11/2012 high) and 1.0400. An hourly support is at 1.0336 (intraday low).

  • AUD/USD is moving within a medium-term horizontal range defined by the support at 1.0177 (25/07/2012 low) and the resistance at 1.0613 (09/08/2012 high).

Await fresh signal.


GBP/JPY

GBPJPY

Challenging a strong resistance area.

  • GBP/JPY is testing a key resistance area defined by the declining trendline and 129.65. An hourly support can be found at 128.26 (16/11/2012 low). Another support can be found at 127.52 (14/11/2012 high).

  • GBP/JPY is still under the negative influence of its long-term falling trendline that started in April 2010. A break of this trendline is needed to suggest further medium-term upside potential.

Await fresh signal.


EUR/JPY

EURJPY

Challenging its declining trendline.

  • EUR/JPY is challenging its strong resistance area implied by the declining trendline and 104.59. Supports can be found at 103.05 (16/11/2012 low) and 102.01 (15/11/2012 low).

  • EUR/JPY is moving in a long-term downtrend (linking the October 2009 top with the April 2011 top). The support to monitor for a short-term corrective phase is 99.52 (11/09/2012 low).

Await fresh signal.


EUR/GBP

EURGBP

Monitor potential base formation.

  • EUR/GBP is moving sideways between the support at 0.7961 (08/11/2012 low) and the resistance at 0.8075 (31/10/2012 high). An hourly support is at 0.8001 (14/11/2012 low).

  • We see the rise from 0.7755 as a countertrend move within a long-term downtrend. We need to see a break of the strong resistance at 0.8169 (11/06/2012 high) to negate this view.

Await fresh signal.


EUR/CHF

EURCHF

Moving sideways.

  • EUR/CHF has shown signs of strength since 5 September, which increases the likelihood of further medium-term strength.

  • The SNB has put a floor at 1.2000 on EUR/CHF, which is expected to hold in the medium-term.

  • In the long-term, we remain of the view that if EUR/USD can gather some downside momentum then it may be a step too far for the SNB to hold back the whole FX market.

Long 3 at 1.2121, Objs: 1.2243/1.2380/1.2474, Stop: 1.1998 (Entered: 2012-09-18).


GOLD

Gold

Support at 1703 intact thus far.

  • Gold has validated an hourly base formation close to the support at 1703 (07/11/2012 low). Monitor the resistance area given by 1734 (14/11/2012 high) and 1739 (09/11/2012 high).

  • The strong support at 1647 is expected to hold.

  • Gold is in a secular uptrend with strong support at 1523. Monitor the strong resistance area between 1791 and 1803.

Await fresh signal.


SILVER

Silver

Monitor hourly range between 32.07 and 32.92.

  • Silver is moving within a short-term horizontal range between 32.07 and 32.92 (14/11/2012 high).

  • The strong support at 30.23 (30/08/2012 low) is expected to hold.

  • Silver, like Gold, has been able to hold above its key support. The break of the long-term declining trendline favours a lengthy sideways move. Long-term horizontal resistance is at 37.48.

Await fresh signal.

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