USD/JPY: Declining trendline intact so far


Potential lower high in place.

  • EUR/USD declined sharply yesterday, setting a potential lower high after the 17 September high. However, as long as the rising trendline holds, the short-term technical configuration remains supportive.

  • Even though the long-term trend is still negative (see long-term declining trendline linking the May 2011 high with the August 2011 high), we see no clear evidence yet to suggest that the rise that started in July 2012 is over.

Long 3 at 1.2970, Objs: 1.3070/1.3170/1.3280, Stop: 1.2870 (Entered: 2012-10-08).


Recent new low calls for a test of the support at 1.5960.

  • GBP/USD has broken its support at 1.6067. A test of the short-term support at 1.5960 (10/09/2012 low and 38.2% retracement) is likely. An hourly resistance can be found at 1.6122 (intraday low).

  • GBP/USD is likely moving in a long-term horizontal range. The resistances given by 1.6302 (30/04/2012 high) and by the long-term declining trendline (linking the August 2009 top with the April 2011 top) favour a corrective phase.

Await fresh signal.


Declining trendline intact so far.

  • USD/JPY has failed to break the resistance implied by the declining trendline. The subsequent weakness has stopped, thus far, at the support at 78.12 (03/10/2012 low). However, a break of the hourly resistance at 78.49 (intraday low) is needed to negate the short-term bearish bias implied by yesterday's sharp decline.

  • USD/JPY is likely in a long-term bottoming process and is oversold in the medium-term time frame. We therefore expect to see a phase of strength in the short-term. Medium-term resistance is at 80.62.

Long 3 at 78.18, Objs: 79.47/80.62/83.00, Stop: 76.89 (Entered: 2012-09-20).


Short-term declining channel broken.

  • USD/CHF has broken its short-declining channel, invalidating the bearish head and shoulders formation. Monitor the declining trendline and the resistance at 0.9393 (intraday high). An hourly support can be found at 0.9323 (intraday low).

  • The break of prior support at 0.9423 opens the way for a medium-term move towards the next horizontal support at 0.9043. It also strengthens the resistance area between 0.9951 (61.8% retracement of the decline from June 2010 to August 2011) and 1.0067 (01/12/2010 high).

Await fresh signal.


Consolidating after sharp decline.

  • USD/CAD's wild swings on 5 October has created a support at 0.9736 (05/10/2012 low), which is strengthened by the proximity of the short-term support at 0.9726. An hourly resistance can be found at 0.9812 (05/10/2012 high).

  • The succession of lower highs since March 2009 favours an underlying bearish bias. Indeed, the break of the support at 0.9725 opens the way for a medium-term move towards the strong support at 0.9407. A break of the resistance at 0.9949 is needed to negate this bias.

Await fresh signal.


Bouncing near key support at 1.0167/1.0177.

  • AUD/USD bounced near its strong support at 1.0177 yesterday. A decisive break of this key support would confirm a bigger decline (see potential medium-term double-top). Hourly resistance is at 1.0275 (05/10/2012 high).

  • The proximity of the long-term declining trendline, coupled with medium-term oscillators near overbought levels, favours a phase of weakness. Resistance at 1.0329 (26/09/2012 low, see also declining trendline).

Short 2 at 1.0430, Objs: 0.9980/0.9820, Stop: 1.0340 (Entered: 2012-09-11).


Lower high calls for a test of the support at 1.2370.

  • GBP/JPY posted a lower high on 5 October by making a shooting star (a bearish candlestick pattern). The short-term support at 125.35 (26/09/2012 low) has held thus far, but the current weak bounce favours further short-term weakness.

  • GBP/JPY is moving within a long-term declining channel since April 2010. The sharp reversal near the high of its rising channel favours a medium-term move towards the strong support at 123.70.

Await fresh signal.


Potential lower high in place.

  • EUR/JPY declined sharply yesterday, setting a potential lower high after the 17 September high. Monitor the test of the support area between 101.05 and the rising trendline. Hourly resistance can be found at 101.86 (05/10/2012 low).

  • EUR/JPY is moving in a long-term downtrend (linking the October 2009 top with the April 2011 top). However, the medium-term oscillators favour a test of this downtrend.

Long 2 at 99.81, Objs: 103.86/107.5, Stop: 100.60 (Entered: 2012-10-01).


Testing key resistance area.

  • EUR/GBP is now testing its declining trendline. Monitor also the key horizontal resistance at 0.8115 (14/09/2012 high). An hourly support is at 0.8031 (05/10/2012 low).

  • We see the rise from 0.7755 as a countertrend move within a long-term downtrend. We need to see a break of the strong resistance area between 0.8115 (14/09/2012 high, see also declining trendline) and 0.8169 to negate this view.

Await fresh signal.


Short-term upside momentum is improving.

  • EUR/CHF has shown signs of strength since 5 September, which increases the likelihood of further medium-term strength.

  • The SNB has put a floor at 1.2000 on EUR/CHF, which is expected to hold in the medium-term.

  • In the long-term, we remain of the view that if EUR/USD can gather some downside momentum then it may be a step too far for the SNB to hold back the whole FX market.

Long 3 at 1.2121, Objs: 1.2243/1.2380/1.2474, Stop: 1.1998 (Entered: 2012-09-18).


Testing short-term rising trendline.

  • Gold declined yesterday. It is now testing its short-term up trendline. Monitor also the hourly support at 1764 (01/10/2012 low).

  • The strong resistance area between 1791 and 1803, coupled with overbought conditions, suggests limited short-term upside potential.

  • Gold is in a secular uptrend with strong support at 1523. Still, given the proximity of the aforementioned resistances and the current overextended rise, a phase of weakness is likely.

Short 3 at 1775, Objs: 1733/1690/1657, Stop: 1817 (Entered: 2012-09-27).


Weakening within its short-term horizontal range.

  • Silver is moving sideways since 14 September. The resistance at 35.17 (21/09/2012 high) has successfully been tested. A test of the support at 33.37 (26/09/2012 low) is now likely. An hourly resistance can be found at 34.59 (intraday high).

  • Silver, like Gold, has been able to hold above its key support. The break of the long-term declining trendline favours a lengthy sideways move. Long-term horizontal resistance at 37.48.

Await fresh signal.

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