EUR/USD: Selling pressure is intensifying


Selling pressure is intensifying.

  • EUR/USD has moved below its short-term support at 1.3022. A move towards the support at 1.2755 (11/09/2012) is now expected.

  • The lack of base formation or sell-off suggests that the current strength in EUR is a rebound within an underlying downtrend. The current weakness near the 38.2% retracement of the decline from May 2011 to July 2012 suggests limited short-term upside potential and the start of a new down phase.

Sell limit 3 at 1.3050, Objs: 1.2790/1.2510/1.2250, Stop: 1.3310


Short-term topping process likely underway.

  • GBP/USD is fading near its strong resistance at 1.6302. Given the short-term overbought conditions, a phase of weakness is now expected. Support at 1.5960 (10/09/2012).

  • GBP/USD is likely moving in a long-term horizontal range. Still, the resistances given by 1.6302 and by the long-term down trendline (linking the August 2009 top with the April 2011 top), coupled with short-term overbought conditions, suggest limited short-term upside potential.

Our strategy has been stopped.


Sharp bearish reversal near resistance at 79.03.

  • USD/JPY has failed to break the resistance at 79.03 (see also down trendline). The short-term support at 78.16 (17/09/2012 low) is now challenged.

  • USD/JPY is likely in a long-term bottoming process and is oversold in both the short-term and medium-term time frames. The weekly reversal near the support at 77.66 suggests a short-term exhaustion of selling pressure. Medium-term resistance is at 80.62.

Long 3 at 78.18, Objs: 79.47/80.62/83.00, Stop: 76.89 (Entered: 2012-09-20)


Bouncing within short-term downtrend.

  • USD/CHF has moved higher than its hourly resistance at 0.9302, which opens the way for a move towards the resistance at 0.9420 (13/09/2012).

  • The break of the support at 0.9423 opens the way for a medium-term move towards the next horizontal support at 0.9043. It also strengthens the resistance area between 0.9951 (61.8% retracement of the decline from June 2010 to August 2011) and 1.0067 (01/12/2010 high).

Await fresh signal.


Approaching resistance area.

  • USD/CAD's bounce is testing the resistance implied by its short-term down trendline. The strong resistance at 0.9843 (21/08/2012 low) is also not far away. Hourly support is at 0.9764.

  • Succession of lower highs since March 2009. The break of the support at 0.9725 opens the way for a medium-term move towards the strong support at 0.9407.

Await fresh signal.


Hourly head/shoulders in place.

  • AUD/USD has broken its short-term support at 1.0427 (12/09/2012 low), validating a bearish head & shoulders (on a 60 minutes chart). The implied downside risk is given by 1.0230. Hourly resistance is at 1.0429.

  • The proximity of the down trendline favours a significant phase of weakness. However, should a break to the upside out of the symmetrical triangle occur, it would force us to review our strategy.

Short 3 at 1.0430, Objs: 1.0230/0.9980/0.9820, Stop: 1.0630 (Entered: 2012-09-11)


Sharp one-day bearish reversal.

  • GBP/JPY moved sharply lower yesterday despite a strong opening. Monitor the shortterm supports at 126.20 (07/09/2012) and 125.66 (61.8% retracement of the rise from 123.70).

  • GBP/JPY is moving within a long-term declining channel since April 2010. The recent sharp reversal near the high of its rising channel suggests limited short-term upside potential.

Await fresh signal.


Selling pressure is increasing.

  • EUR/JPY is moving lower. The support at 101.63 (previous resistance) is challenged. Other support is at 99.52.

  • We remain focused on the long-term downtrend, which favours a return to the 94.00 region. We would like to initiate a short position when the current uptrend shows significant signs of weakness.

Await fresh signal.


Moving lower.

  • EUR/GBP continues to weaken. A test of the support at 0.7967 (11/09/2012) is expected. Hourly resistance is at 0.8059 (19/09/2012 high).

  • We see the recent strength as a countertrend move within a long-term downtrend. The recent signs of weakness near the strong resistance area between 0.8095 (29/06/2012 high) and 0.8169 (see also down trendline) suggests limited short-term upside potential.

Sell limit 3 at 0.8097, Objs: 0.7963/0.7828/0.7700, Stop: 0.8230


Short-term weakness.

  • EUR/CHF has moved higher than its resistance at 1.2147, increasing the likelihood of further strength. The next resistance is at 1.2243.

  • The SNB has put a floor at 1.2000 on EUR/CHF which is expected to hold on the medium-term.

  • In the long-term, we remain of the view that if EUR/USD can gather some downside momentum then it may be a step too far for the SNB to hold back the whole FX market.

Long 3 at 1.2121, Objs: 1.2243/1.2380/1.2474, Stop: 1.1998 (Entered: 2012-09-18)


Monitor short-term horizontal range.

  • Gold is moving in a short-term range between 1752 (18/09/2012 low) and 1778 (14/09/2012 high). Strong resistance area between 1791 (29/02/2012) and 1803.

  • Gold is in a secular uptrend with strong support at 1523. Still, given the proximity of the aforementioned resistances and the current overextended rise, a phase of weakness is likely.

Await fresh signal.


Steep rising channel challenged.

  • Silver is moving in a range between 33.81 (17/09/2012) and 34.94 (14/09/2012). The steep rising channel is challenged.

  • Silver, like Gold, has been able to hold above its key support. The break of the long-term down trendline favours a lengthy sideways move. Long-term horizontal resistance at 37.48.

Await fresh signal.

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