The Euro remains under pressure and holds below 1.3200 handle, following repeated recovery failure at 1.3243 that stalled ahead of descending 55 day EMA. As the pair posted marginally fresh low at 1.3155, end of consolidative phase and fresh bearish resumption are seen as likely scenario. Weekly close below 1.3200 handle will be an additional bearish signal for extension towards dynamic support at 1.3130, 90 day MA and 1.3100/1.3065, round figure / Fib 61.8% of 1.2660/1.3710 ascend. On the upside, 1.3243 guards pivotal 1.3300 resistance previous base.
Res: 1.3185, 1.3200, 1.3230, 1.3264
Sup: 1.3155, 1.3130, 1.3100, 1.3065
Near-term price action holds positive tone, as the pair attempted again at session highs and Fib 61.8% at 1.5320, with price being congested within 1.5250 and 1.5320 range. From the other side, still weak 4h studies, along with 20 day EMA limiting recovery, see not much upside potential for now, but weekly close above previous strong support and multi-year range floor at 1.5230/60 zone, would keep near-term bulls off 1.5130 in play. Regain of psychological 1.5400 barrier and Fib 38.2% of 1.5843/1.5130 fall, will be initial signal of possible stronger correction. Otherwise, broader bear-trend, boosted by break of of very important support points, would keep psychological 1.5000 target in near-term focus.
Res: 1.5300, 1.5320, 1.5371, 1.5400
Sup: 1.5250, 1.5214, 1.5191, 1.5130
The pair is poised to make the strongest weekly gain since May 2012, as upside acceleration was triggered on a break above two-month 0.9814/1.0100 congestion. Today’s lift above psychological 1.0200 barrier that retraced 76.4% of larger Jun/Sep 2012 1.0444/0.9631 descend, sees scope for full retracement on a stretch to 1.0444. interim barriers lie at 1.0300, round figure and 1.0361, 28 June 2012 high. Near-term bulls remain unobstructed for now, despite extremely overbought conditions, with weekly close above 1.0200, seen as additional support.
Res: 1.0254, 1.0300, 1.0361, 1.0400
Sup: 1.0200, 1.0184, 1.0156, 1.0110
Larger picture shows the pair entrenched within 1.0225/1.0373 range, seen as consolidation of broader downtrend from 1.0597, 10 Jan high and ceiling of larger range from Aug 2012. Hourly structure is positive, however 4h indicators hold in the negative territory, as the price retraced 76.4% of 1.0148/1.0597 upleg that keeps the larger range floor at 1.0150 in focus . Basing attempt at 1.0225 zone is evident, as attempt of forming double-bottom is underway, however, break above 200 day MA, currently at 1.0320, as initial positive signal and clearance of near-term range top at 1.0373, as base confirmation, also as a trigger for more significant recovery.
Res: 1.0339, 1.0373, 1.0400, 1.0425
Sup: 1.0290, 1.0270, 1.0220, 1.0200