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Daily FX Wrap: Survation poll shakes out some GBP longs; Yellen reaffirms cautious approach. New highs in Cable, since retracted. Nervousness pulling risk pairs off better levels.
More pre UK referendum volatility and once again we see gains for GBP as the Cable rate pushes to new highs seen since the public vote was announced. 1.4780 achieved, while EUR/GBP has been pushed down to lows just shy of .7655. Much has been made of the over optimism of the remain vote winning out, but the latest Survation poll – the last ahead of the vote – was a stark reminder that this will be a very tight call (45% remain, 44% leave, 11% undecided). Cable was already tempering gains, but was given fresh weight in the pull back under 1.4700, though buyers are ready and waiting in the mid 1.4600’s. Trade here dominating move elsewhere, with EUR/USD pulled back under 1.1300, though the mid 1.1300’s were looking heavy first thing. This was in the face of a more positive than anticipated ZEW in both the EU and Germany, but as has been the case for large periods over recent weeks, cross rate impacting significantly here. New highs for NZD, as we touch on levels just shy of .7170, while AUD/USD has taken another look above .7500. USD/CAD losses extended into the mid 1.2700’s, but the recovery through 1.2800 is looking weak as yet. Amid the Brexit volatility today we had the first of the Yellen testimonies, but the Fed chair can offer little more than reaffirming the cautious approach and data dependency on rate policy ahead. USD/JPY stagnating in the mid 104.00’s for now, as risk sentiment is on hold until Thursday’s big vote in the UK.
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