Daily Forecast - 30 April 2015
USDJPY Spot
USDJPY below 118.85/80 again today risks a retest of important trend line & support at April lows at 118.60/50. This could hold the downside for the second day but a break lower risks a retest of March lows & Fibonacci support at 118.30/20. This is the last line of defence for bulls this week. Try longs with wide stops below 118.00.
First resistance at the 100 day moving average at 119.30/35. Shorts here need stops above 119.45. A break higher is more positive & targets resistance at 119.65/75 with a high for the day possible. Try shorts with stops above 119.85. Be ready to go with a break higher to target 120.15/20.
AUDUSD
AUDUSD outlook is more negative after yesterday's negative signal with first support at 7960/55. A good profit on our shorts & a bounce from here possible on the first test at least, but a break below 7935 signals further weakness to 7915/10 then good support at 7885/80. A good bounce from here is expected & we can try longs with stops below 78060.
Bulls must beat 8025 to re-target strong resistance at 8055/65. This is the main challenge for bulls again today in an overbought market. Try shorts with stops above 8080. However an unexpected break higher is a positive signal & targets 8100/05 then 8130/35.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD first support at 1.5420 then 1.5375/70 which could hold the downside this morning at least, but longs need stops below 1.5345. A break lower targets 1.5335 then strong support at 1.5295/85. Try longs with stops below 1.5260.
Holding first support at 1.5420 allows a retest of yesterday's high at 1.5496. Although severely overbought, be ready to go with a break higher to target 1.5535/40 & perhaps as far as strong resistance at 1.5560/70. A good chance of a high for the day here & possibly for the week. Try shorts with wide stops above 1.5600.
EURUSD Spot
EURUSD has trend line resistance at 1.1175 but be ready to go with a break above 1.1187, despite overbought conditions, to target 1.1220 & 1.1240/45. Any further gains run in to strong longer term resistance at 1.1290/1.1300. This is a major challenge for bulls & a high for the day very possible. Try shorts with wide stops above 1.1330.
First support at 1.1095/90 on any profit taking today but below here risks a slide to good support at 1.1035/30. Watch for a low for the day but longs need stops below 1.1010. Next support at 1.0990/85 must hold the downside or the outlook is more negative & risks a slide to strong support at 1.0940/35.
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