USDJPY support at 119.80/119.75 is key to direction

Daily Forecast - 14 April 2015

S&P June contract

Emini S&P holding good support & our buying opportunity at 2085/84 triggers a recovery to 2092/93 for at least some profit taking on longs. If we continue higher look for strong resistance at the upper trend line of the 6 week channel at 2099/01. Again sell with stops on a move above 2106. However a break & close above here keeps the short term outlook positive & targets 2107/08. If we continue higher look for 2114 & a retest of the all time high at 2117.75.

First support at 2085/84 of course but longs need stops below 2081. Be ready to go with a break lower to target next support at 2078/77. Try longs with stops below 2073. Just be aware that a break & close below 2077 is more negative in to the end of the week & targets 2070 then excellent support at 2063/62 for a buying opportunity.

USDJPY Spot

USDJPY support at 119.80/119.75 is key to direction. We could recover from here again today to 120.00/05 & perhaps as far as resistance at 120.20/25 for profit taking on remaining longs. If we continue higher look for resistance at 120.45/55. We can try shorts here with stops above 120.70. Be ready to go with a break above yesterday's high at 120.84 however as this is more positive & targets 121.10/20. If we continue higher today we can reach towards 121.50/60.

Failure to hold above support at 119.80/119.75 keeps the market under pressure & longs need stops below 119.60. Be ready to go with a break lower to target 119.55/50, perhaps as far as strong support at 119.25/20. Buy with stops on a move below 119.00.

AUDUSD

AUDUSD first resistance at 7622/25 could hold a move higher but shorts need stops above 7645. A break higher however targets 7666 & we should struggle here but if we continue higher look for strong resistance at 7685/90. Try shorts with stops above 7710.

Failure to beat first resistance at 7622/25 should trigger a move lower to 7595. A bounce from here certainly possible on the first test at least. However the trend is of course negative so be ready to go with a break lower to target 7577 then 7558/50. Last week's low at 7530 is then important. Obviously a break below here is more negative & indicates the start of the next leg lower to target 7500 initially then 7440/35.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD must now hold above 1.4665/60 to maintain the recovery & target first resistance at 1.4715/20. Try shorts with stops above 1.4740. A break higher however then targets 1.4765/70 & if we continue higher look for a selling opportunity at 1.4810/15. Our shorts need stops above 1.4845.

First support at 1.4665/60 could hold the downside today but longs need stops below 1.4630. A break lower risks a slide to 1.4590/85 before a retest of yesterday's low at 1.4563. A bounce from here possible again, but a break lower kills all chance of a recovery & targets 1.4550/45 & perhaps as far as 1.4499/94. If we continue lower this week look for 1.4475 & 1.4430/25.