USDCAD holding above 1.1466/1475 & hit our next target of 1.1495 perfectly

Daily Forecast - 09 December 2014

EURUSD

EURUSD resistance at 1.2345/50 is key again today & bear in mind our shorts need a stop above 1.2375. However just be aware that a break higher is more likely today. If seen we can then use 1.2330/25 as support & look for a move towards 1.2380 for profit taking. A high for the day expected here so try shorts with stops above 1.2410.

Failure to get back above 1.2325/30 keeps the market in a bear trend to target 1.2295/90. It may be worth profit-taking on at least some of our shorts from the 1.2345 area here. However we are in a bear trend, so would not be a surprise to see the pair continue lower to 1.2275/71 and any further weakness is likely then to retest the 1.2251/45 level. A break below 1.2235 cannot be ruled out & should target 1.2205/00.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD has immediate support at 1.5635/30 so below here is helpful to our short positions and should target 1.5610/05. It could be worth profit-taking on at least some of our shorts from 1.5675 here but if we continue lower we could target 1.5570/65. Any further losses risk a retest of that 1.5540/35 level. Just be aware that a break below here this week targets 1.5505/00 in the longer term bear trend. If we continue lower we could then target 1.5465 and 1.5435/30.

Obviously the key level above is 1.5670/75 and could again hold a move higher today but our shorts do need a stop above 1.5700. A break above here is very positive and should initially target 1.5735/40. We could go on to reach 1.5765 for profit taking on remaining longs and perhaps even make it as far as 1.5785/90 for an excellent selling opportunity. Try shorts with a stop above 1.5830.

S&P December contract

Emini S&P broke lower eventually to try longs at 2056/55 expecting a bounce from here, but with stops below 2049. This trade also worked perfectly as we bottomed at 2054 to hit 2063. Be ready to go with a break below 2052 today to target December lows at 2049. If this does not hold the downside look for a short term buying opportunity at 2042/41 & a good chance of a low for the day. Longs need stops below 2035.

Holding support at 2056/55 is more positive & can target 2067/70. We should struggle here & a high for the day possible but be ready to go with a break higher to target 2075 then the all time high at 2079. Obviously this is the important level for the week but even in overbought conditions we could see a break higher to 2083 & possibly as far as 2086/87. If we continue higher this week look for 2092 then 2098/99.

USDCAD

USDCAD holding above 1.1466/1475 & hit our next target of 1.1495 perfectly. We topped exactly here in fact but could continue higher today towards 1.1558 then 1.1639 & perhaps as far as 1.1759 this week.

Immediate support at 1.1475/65 of course but below here risks a slide to 1.1425/20 for an excellent buying opportunity & a low for the day. Try longs with stops below 1.1395.

USDJPY

USDJPY has first resistance at 121.10 so it is probably worth profit-taking on our longs from 120.25/20 anywhere from here up to 121.10 for a potential 80 pip profit. However above 121.25 is more positive for today and may allow move towards 121.60/70 before yesterday's high at 121.84. Clearly there is no point in standing in front of this runaway train so be ready for a break higher to target 122.09/19. Any further gains this week target 122.44 then 123.00/09.

Our first support at 120.25/20 is obviously key to the downside again today & longs need stops below 120.00. Yesterday's price action was actually quite negative and when you bear in mind how severely overbought we are a break lower cannot be ruled out today. Be ready to jump into shorts on a break therefore and look for a downside target of 119.50/45. Exit all shorts and try longs here expecting a low for the day, but with stops below 119.25.

Dax December contract

Dax holding below 10,045/040 is more negative for today & risks a retest of support at 9970/9950. If however we continue lower today as looks likely, we could test strong support at 9890/80. Try longs with stops below 9850. However be ready to go with a break lower as this is a negative signal. We could quickly target 9785/80 then good support at 9745/40. A low for the day is certainly possible here but further losses target excellent support at 9710/9700. This is such good support that it could even mark the low for the week if we do experience a correction.

Immediate resistance at 2 day highs of 10093/099 then all time highs at 10,127 are now the key to direction of course. A break above here negates Thursdays negative price action to turn the outlook positive again and targets 10,160/170. Watch for a high for the day here but be ready to go with a break higher in the strong Bull trend to target 10,200 then 10,240/50.