Daily Forecast - 31 May 2013

Eurostoxx June contract


Euro Stoxx got closer to 2768/62 support which held as hoped & we bounced from 2771. Resistance at 2810 then held the bounce & could do so again today with the outlook still negative.

Below 2800 look for 2889/86 & then 2768/62 which remains good support & could hold the downside again today. A break lower certainly cannot be ruled out though for a test of last week’s low & the March high at 2751/47. This should hold the downside but any longs need stops below 2740.

Above 2810 meets 2820 & a selling opportunity with stops above 2832 for a retest of this week’s high at 2846/49 & a very good chance of a top here again.

Long term levels
2838Last Week’s High
2755January High
2744March High
2719February High
2694April High
2674December High
26442012 High
2556February Low
2501April Lows

Dax June contract


Dax dipped towards good Fibonacci support at 8292 & as expected we got bounce from here as we bottomed at 8298. Resistance at 8412/25 held the bounce unsurprisingly & could do again today with the outlook still negative but a break higher targets 8441/51 & a high for the day possible. If however we get a Friday squeeze higher look for 8476/80 & a break higher from here could test this week’s high at 8530.

Immediate support is 8380/75 then 8353/47. Failure here could see a retest of support at 8298/92 & a low for the day possible again. However we certainly cannot rule out a break lower so we need tight stops on any longs below last week’s low of 8260. Next target 8235 & possibly 8217/10.

Long term levels
8561All Time High
8261Last Week’s Low
82532007 High
8180January 2008 High
81362000 High
8077March High
7971April High
76942012 High
76242011 High

FTSE 100 June contract


FTSE tried a break below 6590 but recovered quickly from 6586 to reach resistance at 6645. We could struggle again at 6650/55 today but above 6660 opens the door to a test of tough resistance at 6692/99. Look for a high for the day here so exit longs & try shorts but we need stops above 6725 for a move towards 6756.

Failure to beat 6655 could see us drift back to 6598/88. A break lower today cannot be ruled out and could target the March high at 6558/52. If we continue lower look for good support at 6518. Any further weakness could offer a buying opportunity at 6472/66 with stops below 6435.

Long term levels
6861Last Week’s High
68022007 High
6621Last Week’s Low
65472008 High
6536March High
6397February High
63722001 High
62892006 High
6275March Low

E-Mini S&P June contract


S&P stuck in a range for a week now. We beat resistance at 1653 to reach the next resistance at 1659 & top out. If we hold 1653 now, look for a retest of 1659/60. A push higher today then targets 1665 for a selling opportunity but a break higher could reach 1673/74. If this does not hold we could see all time highs at 1685.

Below 1653 could see us at 1645. A break of yesterday’s low at 1641 could then test last week’s low at 1634/32. The outlook remains weak so a break lower cannot be ruled out but 1627/26 is strong support for a first test at least, so maybe exit shorts & try longs with stops below 1620 for a buying opportunity at 1614.

Long term levels
1685All Time High
1633Last Week’s Low
1594April high
1586/872007 high
15742000 High
1564.5March high
1558Nov 2007 High
1533April Low
1530February High



EURUSD broke the upper end of the range at 1.2965/75 as expected to target the 200 day moving average at 1.3020/30 where we suggested shorts with stops above 1.3060. We did not break 1.3060 & being overbought in the short term we could see a drift back to 1.3000. We may see a bounce from here today but if we continue lower look for 1.2960, possibly 1.2929. If we fall as far as 1.2895 this could present a buying opportunity but we need stops below 1.2850.

A break above 1.3060 however keeps the rally going for a target of 1.3115. Strong resistance at here could see a high for the day. Exit longs & try shorts with stops above 1.3150 & then look for 1.3180/95.

Long term levels
1.37112013 (February) High
1.34862012 High
1.3134March High
1.3018February Low
1.2998January Low
1.2877December Low
1.2817Last Week’s Low
1.2751March Low