Forecast for 8th March 2013

XAU Spot Gold

Spot Gold

Spot Gold holding support at 1569/67 & 1587/88 resistance.

Below 1579 we could now test support at 1569/67 again today & a break below 1565 could signal a retest of February lows at 1555.

We will need to hold above 1579/80 for another test of 1587/88 resistance. This could hold the top of the market again today but if we start to push higher look for 1595 with 1605/09 the target above.

Long term levels
1754.46Nov High
1723.45Dec High
1709.09100 Day Moving Average
1696.2Jan High
1655100 Week Moving Average
1635.75Dec Low
1626.68Jan Low
1620Last Week’s High
161123.6% Fibonacci
1565Last Week’s Low

WTI Light Crude April contract

WTI Crude

WTI Crude Oil beat 90.54 resistance as hoped to hit the target of 91.30/40. We have fallen just short of 91.90 but today’s out look remains positive & if we can hold above 91.30 this will be our target for today with 92.50/92.70 offering strong resistance above. This should hold the top side if tested.

Below 91.15 however we look likely to drift back to 90.55. We could see a bounce from here but below 90.20 risks a retest of recent lows at 89.50/35 which should present a very good buying opportunity once again. However a break could target 88.59.

Long term levels
91.58Weekly 38.2% Fibonacci
91.1450% Fibonacci
94.46Last Week’s High
94.29100 Week Moving Average
90.37200 Day Moving Average
90.04Last Week’s Low

Brent Crude April contract

Brent Crude

Brent Crude eased back from 111.83/98 to hit the 110.50/40 level & has held above here. If we can beat 111.10 we should see a move to 111.98/112.25. Above 112.25 then targets 112.73 & possibly 113.25/45 next week.

If we hold below 111.10/00 look for another test of 110.50/40. If we fail here recent lows at 109.80/60 remains good support with the chance of a second bounce this week but any longs will need stops below the 200 day moving average at 109.11 for 108.66 then 108.13.

Long term levels
115.87Last Week’s High
111.9650% Fibonacci
112.07100 Week Moving Average
111.59100 Day Moving Average
109.82Last Week’s Low
109.741 year trend line

Gasoil ICE April contract


Gasoil is hovering around Fibonacci resistance at 934.25 but we could push higher to target 940/942. We should struggle here today & this could mark the high but any shorts need a stop above 945 for 950.50, possibly 953.63.

Support at 928/927 but below here could see 924.50 trade. If this does not hold we risk another test of 918/17 lows which is expected to hold again if tested.

Long term levels
10452012 High
995.75Last Week’s High
960Dec High
956.96100 Day Moving Average
951.26100 Week Moving Average
918.7550% Fibonacci
917.25Last Week’s Low

Natural Gas April contract

Natural Gas

Natural Gas held support at 3.483/3.462 & is back up testing resistance at 3.592/613 as expected. This level has not yet broken as we had expected yesterday but if we do break through 3.650 today look for 3.684 then 3.719 & possibly even 3.748 may be next week.

Support is at 3.540/3.554 but below here we could retest the 3.483/3.462 area. A break lower could expect to test the next support level at 3.415/3.400. This should provide a floor for today but if we sink further look for 3.359.

Long term levels
3.9332012 High
3.791200 Week Moving Average
3.748December High
3.645January High
3.554Last Week’s High
3.464100 Day Moving Average
3.32Last Week’s Low
3.305100 Week Moving Average
3.138200 Day Moving Average
3.079Weekly 38.2% Fibonacci

RBOB Gasoline April contract


RBOB resistance at 315/317 is holding so far. There is good support at 310/09 & we are moving within this range.

Below 309 risks a test of March lows at 306. A break below 304 could then keep prices under pressure for good support at 300/299.

We need to see prices back above 315 to retest 317 highs. If we push higher look for 320.14/86, possibly 323.49 for a selling opportunity.

Long term levels
316.91February High
314.34Last Week’s High
297.82Last Week’s Low
294.63Weekly 23.6% Fibonacci
280.85Weekly 38.2% Fibonacci
280.0121 Week Moving Average