Forecast for 4th March 2013

Natural Gas April contract

Natural Gas

Natural Gas held support at 3.390 but will need to beat 3.460 resistance for another test of 3.52/3.554 highs. It is unlikely we can push through here today as this is 10 month trend line resistance & we are getting quite over bought, but a break would target 3.592/613.

Below 3.453 support we should retest 3.399/386 support. A break lower today would not be a surprise & should target 3.339/315 where we could expect to see a bounce. If however we move below 3.320 we should fill the gap at 3.294/289 & find excellent support here.

Long term levels
3.9332012 High
3.791200 Week Moving Average
3.748December High
3.645January High
3.554Last Week’s High
3.464100 Day Moving Average
3.32Last Week’s Low
3.305100 Week Moving Average
3.138200 Day Moving Average
3.079Weekly 38.2% Fibonacci


Gasoil ICE March contract

Gasoil ICE

Gasoil tested strong support at 920.25/918.75. Here we predicted a low for the week & the exact low was 917.25. Being so over sold a bounce is very likely from this point & above 926 we can target Friday’s high of 930 then Fibonacci resistance at 935.78. Watch for a high here at this stage. However a break higher could find tough resistance at 944.27/947.24.

Support at 918.75/917.25 is expected to hold again today if tested. However if we break lower look for 911.75.

Long term levels
10452012 High
995.75Last Week’s High
960Dec High
956.96100 Day Moving Average
951.26100 Week Moving Average
918.7550% Fibonacci
917.25Last Week’s Low


RBOB Gasoline April contract

RBOB

March RBOB tested the December high at 283.92/83 where we saw a possible bounce from here. We shot higher from 282.70. April needs to hold above 312 now for a test of resistance at 315/316. If we push higher look for 319, possibly 322 for a selling opportunity.

Below 312 risks a retest of 307/306 lows & good support here could hold again today. However a break lower targets 302.88.

Long term levels
316.91February High
314.34Last Week’s High
297.82Last Week’s Low
294.63Weekly 23.6% Fibonacci
280.85Weekly 38.2% Fibonacci
280.0121 Week Moving Average


XAU Spot Gold

XAU Spot Gold

Spot Gold broke 1584 & fell all the way back to 1565. Support today seen at 1569/67 and this could hold any weakness. However a break below 1565 could signal a retest of February lows at 1555.

It does look like we can push back above 1579/80 resistance for 1587/88. This could hold the top of the market today but if we start to push higher look for 1595.

Long term levels
1754.46Nov High
1723.45Dec High
1709.09100 Day Moving Average
1696.2Jan High
1655100 Week Moving Average
1635.75Dec Low
1626.68Jan Low
1620Last Week’s High
161123.6% Fibonacci
1565Last Week’s Low