Forecast for 4th February 2013



The USDJPY experienced a 13 year bear market from 1998 to 2011 which saw prices bottom at 75.35. The first Fibonacci target for the bounce of the 13 year bear market is at 92.42 and we reached this target on Friday. The market is very overbought on weekly and daily charts and this really should have acted as strong resistance so it is a surprise that we shot through this level like it was not there. The unstoppable 4 month rally closed above 92.42 on Friday which now signals a move to the next target of 93.99 this week.

If we drift lower look for 92.42/34 as first support but below here 91.96 could provide a floor today. However a break below here keeps the market under pressure for 91.52/34 which should be a good buying opportunity today.

Long term levels
95.86Weekly 78.6% Fibonacci
93.99Monthly 38.2% Fibonacci
92.97Last Week’s high
91.48Weekly 61.8% Fibonacci
90.33Last Week’s Low
86.86Monthly 23.6% Fibonacci

Nikkei March contract


Nikkei reached our target of 11219 for profit taking as we over ran slightly to 11250 and there is a high chance of a top for the 6 month rally here.

However a sharp collapse in not expected, rather a drift back to Friday’s low of 11054 initially but below here look for 10940/930. This should hold on the first test so look for a low and a bounce back may be to 11000. If we do break lower however next target is 10835 and then excellent support at 10749/737. This should provide a floor for the correction at this stage so worth buying in to longs here this week .

11219/11250 is our resistance band which should be very tough to beat so we watch for a high here again today. Ideally, this being such a big level we need to use a stop above the 2010 high of 11390.

Long term levels
116102008 H1 Low
113902010 High
11250Last Week’s High
11219Monthly 38.2% Fibonacci
108902011 High
107702009 High
10720Last week’s Low

Topix March contract


Topix has at last reached our monthly Fibonacci resistance at 948/955. With the market severely overbought it may be wise to take profit on longs here and see if we pull back in the early part of February for another buying opportunity. However if we do push higher through 956, the next target is 966 and then 2011 highs of 976 which should cause a few problems for bulls.

Initial target for profit taking is 929 but there is scope for 918/916 which should hold a slide today. However longs need a stop below 912 for 906, possibly 896/94 with a floor expected here this week if tested.

Long term levels
949/955Major Long Term Resistance
949Last Week’s High
9172 Year Trend Line Resistance
9052011 March Gap
901.5March 2011 Weekly High
881.5Last Week’s Low
880.5July 2011 High
8672012 High
841.4200 Week Moving Average

FTSE China A50 Feb contract

FTSE China A50

FTSE China A50 roared higher though the 9165/70 upper target and closed above the 200 week moving average at 9178 having reached 9245. Next target for the unstoppable market is 9285 then 9350/73 where we should run in to sellers.

Buying in to weakness looks like the safest strategy. Support today at 9025 then 8889 with 8780 below.

Long term levels
9373Weekly 61.8% Fibonacci
9245Last Week’s High
9177200 Week Moving Average
87152012 High
8500Last week’s Low
8188100 Week Moving Average

Hang Seng CE Index March contract

Hang Seng CE Index

Hang Seng China Enterprises Future in a holding pattern most of last week as the market runs out of momentum. We are so over bought and in need of a correction but 12011/11978 acted as support again on Friday and being 21 day moving average this is an important level, so a break this week would be significant and lead to 11853 on the way to 11778/753 support.

Last week’s high at 12230/266 is our major resistance, which should hold the top side again this week. Worth exiting any longs on the approach therefore and trying shorts with a stop above 12300. If we do push through here in today’s session we look for 12335 as the next target and then 12474. Above here 12546 closes another gap from Aug 2011.

Long term levels
12673August 2011 High
12300July 2011 Weekly Low
12266January 2012 High
12230Last Week’s High
12117July 2011 Weekly Low
11978Last Week’s Low
119452012 High
11855Weekly 61.8% Fibonacci
11417200 Week Moving Average

Hang Seng March contract

Hang Seng

Hang Seng Futures headed lower as we warned but just held on to 23575 support as we bottomed at 23568. 23600/575 is the level to watch today as a break could target the 21 day MA and further S/T Fib support at 23497/484 where we look a low today but failure here takes us towards 23392/364.

Resistance at 23770/816 then the week’s high at 23943 and this could cap any rally again today so we need to exit any longs here. If we do push higher though look for 24161 then 24284. Above here we tackle the 2011 highs of 24462/24485 and being a yearly high this should be very significant resistance.

Long term levels
249462010 High
244852011 High
23943Last Week’s High
23790June 2011 High
23614July 2011 High
23568Last Week’s Low
23061Weekly 78.6% Fibonacci
22900/843July/Aug 2011 high
22170November high
21854October high
217642012 H1 high

Kospi March contract


Kospi Future held Tuesday’s range for the rest of the week finding it hard to fight the downtrend and holding resistance at 259.30/260. Last week’s low at 254.80/60 is good daily Fibonacci support with the 200 day moving average just below at 254.11 so should be hard to break despite the trend, with the market oversold. However we can stop on longs and reverse in to shorts below 254.00 for 252.75. A break below here targets the 6 month up trend line at 250 where we would hope to see a low.

Resistance at 259.30/260 should remain a struggle once again but if a break higher is seen we look for 261.95/262.08 which may be enough of a recovery. Should be worth exiting longs here and trying shorts with a stop above 264.50 for 266.50/57. This resistance should hold any recovery this week.

Long term levels
274.62012 High
269.8September High
265.9October High
265.85Last week’s high
257.79100 day Moving Average
257.01100 week Moving Average
256.75November High
256.25Daily 50% Fibonacci
255.7Last week’s Low
254.28200 day Moving Average
252.75Weekly 50% Fibonacci

Gasoil ICE Feb contract


Gasoil was expected to hit our next target of 1001.50/1008 on Friday and with tough resistance in an overbought market we predicted a top here for the time being. This target was hit and high of the day was in fact 1008.50.

Although this was a strong performance and we expect to continue the uptrend we may see a drift lower initially to 998.50. Watch for a low for the day here but if we continue lower there is good support at 992 so little chance of any further losses.

1008 remains tricky resistance but we have the momentum to push through here eventually to the next target of 1014/16. Watch for profit taking here and the chance of a small pullback but if we break higher we should then close a gap at 1021.

Long term levels
10452012 High
1030Oct High
1019Sept High
1008Last Week’s High
966Last Week’s Low
959.75Dec High
952.35100 Day Moving Average

Natural Gas March contract

Natural Gas

Nat Gas saw resistance at 3.374/386 cap the market again and we held above 3.258/240 support. The outlook is quite weak so we may see this level tested today and we watch for a break lower to target last week’s low at 3.215/207. Below here we hit strong support from the 5 month trend line at 3.185 which should see us bounce but a break could keep the pressure on for 3.122 then 3.087.

3.374/386 remains resistance today and should be hard to beat with the market likely to remain under pressure, but if we break last week’s high at 3.396 we should close the gap towards 3.426 and top out here. Wee exit any longs and try shorts with a stop above 3.445.

Long term levels
3.9332012 High
3.8200 Week Moving Average
3.748December High
3.42100 Day Moving Average
3.396Last Week’s High
3.348100 Week Moving Average
3.207Last Week’s Low
3.079Weekly 38.2% Fibonacci
3.032200 Day Moving Average