• Risk appetite was boosted by the announcement that Greece and its creditors had reached a deal yesterday.

  • Although major equity indices in Asia, Europe and the US closed higher yesterday, we expect caution in markets ahead of the Greek parliamentary meetings (today and tomorrow).

  • Local bonds have largely ignored the sell-off in US and German bonds over the past three days.

  • The rand is steady at 12.45 and continues to benefit marginally from increased risk appetite. However, we doubt that the currency will see any sustained strength ahead of tomorrow as well as the SARB MPC meeting next week.

  • Brent crude oil remains under pressure as nuclear talks with Iran drag on. Brent crude dropped as low as USD56.84/bbl yesterday and is currently trading around USD57.30.

  • Eurozone industrial production for May today is due for release today. In the US, there will be retail sales data.

  • The rand gained ground against all of the major crosses; the euro (-1.4%), the yen (0.5%) and the pound (-0.3%). The rand put in the best performance amongst the commodity currencies we monitor for purposes of this report, and a mixed performance amongst the EM currencies.

  • The rand traded between a low of USDZAR12.3906 and a high of USDZAR12.5287.


International developments

Risk appetite was boosted by the announcement that Greece and its creditors had reached a deal yesterday. The VIX index – a measure of market risk sentiment – gapped lower from a close of 16.8% on Friday to a close of 13.9% yesterday. At the same time, the US and German bonds – which both benefited from concerns over Greece – came under pressure. The UST 10-year bond yield is back at 2.42% – close to the YTD highs of 2.49%.

Greece must still pass a range of reforms through its parliament by tomorrow before negotiations for a new bail-out program will begin in all earnest. These measures include VAT reform, pension cuts and the sale of state assets. Indications are that Mr Tsipras will receive resistance from within his own Syriza party.

Although major equity indices in Asia, Europe and the US closed higher yesterday, we expect caution in markets ahead of the Greek parliamentary meetings today and tomorrow.

Local bonds have largely ignored the sell-off in US and German bonds over the past three days. The R186 is steady around the 8.20% level despite the US 10-year bond yield moving from 2.18% on Wednesday last week to the current levels at 2.42%. Should the US 10-year yield to move above 2.50% in coming days, we would expect the R186 to come under renewed pressure.

The rand is steady at 12.45 and continues to benefit from increased risk appetite. However, we doubt that the currency would see any sustained strength ahead of tomorrow as well as the SARB MPC meeting next week. We expect the SARB to hike by 25 bps.

Brent crude oil remains under pressure as the nuclear talks with Iran drag on. Brent crude dropped as low as USD56.84/bbl yesterday and is currently trading around the USD57.30 level. This is the lowest level in Brent crude - in both dollar terms and rand terms – since April this year. Apart from possible Iran oil – which may reach the market in 6 to 12 months - Saudi Arabia continues to pump more oil, with the country’s oil production reaching 10.56mbpd in June. This is the highest monthly production by Saudi Arabia in more than 25 years.

On the data front, we are looking at Eurozone industrial production for May today. Expectations are for production (excluding construction) to grow at 2% y/y, up from 0.8% y/y in April. This would mark the seventh consecutive month of expansion in Eurozone industrial production.

In the US, we look at retail sales data. US retail sales rebounded strongly in May and, although the market expects retail sales excluding autos and gas to grow at 0.4% m/m in June – marginally slower than the 0.7% m/m recorded in May – it would still indicate that the US consumer continues to recover. It may also lead to more pressure on US bonds and, by implication, local bonds and the rand.


Markets

The rand remained unchanged on Monday, closing at 12.45, the same as Friday’s close of 12.45. The rand’s performance against the greenback occurred in line with dollar strength against all of the major currencies; the dollar posted gains against the euro (-1.5%), the yen (0.5%) and the pound (-0.2%). The rand gained ground against all of the major crosses; the euro (-1.4%), the yen (0.5%) and the pound (-0.3%). The rand put in the best performance amongst the commodity currencies we monitor for purposes of this report and put in a mixed performance amongst the EM currencies. The rand traded between a low of USDZAR12.3906 and a high of USDZAR12.5287.

Commodity prices were mixed on Monday. Platinum was up by 0.2% on Monday, while copper was up fractionally on the day. Gold was down by 0.5% on Monday. Brent closed the day 1.5% lower, at $57.85/bbl. Both the developed world MSCI and the MSCI EM were up on Monday, by 0.9% and 1.1% respectively. The ALSI was up by 1.3% on the day. Non-residents were net buyers of equities (ZAR900 million) on Monday. The EMBI spread narrowed by 1 bp on Monday, and SA’s 5yr CDS narrowed by 2 bps. The CBOE VIX Index, a volatility-based proxy for global risk appetite/aversion, decreased by 17.4%.


Latest SA publications

SA Macroeconomics: Greece reaches a deal, China opens stronger, Oil falls to $56.5: SA consumption expected to slow by Kim Silberman, Thanda Sithole and Kuvasha Naidoo (13 July 2015)

Credit & Securitisation Monthly: Monthly: H1:15 review by Steffen Kriel and Varushka Singh (10 July 2015)

SA Macroeconomics: Mining production grows 2.7%: PGMs up 99.6% due to base effects, coal and iron ore contract by Kim Silberman, Thanda Sithole and Kuvasha Naidoo (10 July 2015)

SA Macroeconomics: Manufacturing contracts 1.4% in May in broad-based slowdown: YTD contraction in growth comparable to 2009 by Kim Silberman, Thanda Sithole and Kuvasha Naidoo (10 July 2015)

SA Macroeconomics: SA assets underperform ahead of Greece’s ‘no’ vote: As in April, manufacturing to contract & mining to accelerate in May by Kim Silberman, Thanda Sithole and Kuvasha Naidoo (6 July 2015)

Credit & Securitisation Weekly: Mixed fortunes for Eskom by Steffen Kriel and Varushka Singh (3 July 2015)

SA Macroeconomics: PMI rose from 50.8 to 51.4: Activity & employment improve but new orders decline by Kim Silberman, Thanda Sithole and Kuvasha Naidoo (1 July 2015)

Credit & Securitisation Special Report: African Bank H1:15 results – more of the same by Steffen Kriel (1 July 2015)

SA Macroeconomics: May private credit 9.5% y/y: Corporate credit up 16.2% y/y by Kim Silberman, Thanda Sithole and Kuvasha Naidoo (30 June 2015)

Credit & Securitisation Special Report: NERSA rejects selective reopener in favour of a full reopener & RCA claw-backs by Steffen Kriel and Kim Silberman (30 June 2015)

SA Macroeconomics: NERSA rejects Eskom's re-opener: Implications by Kim Silberman, Thanda Sithole and Kuvasha Naidoo (30 June 2015)

SA Macroeconomics: Nersa decides on tariffs today: Greece to dominate EM assets by Kim Silberman and Steffen Kriel (29 June 2015)

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