Matt Simpson, CFTe, MSTA
CityIndex
A snapshot view of last week's money flow and technical notes for the week ahead.
KEY EVENTS THIS WEEK:
AUD: RBA Minutes; New motor vehicle sales; NAB quarterly business confidence
CAD: Manufacturing sales; Rate decision/statement; Core CPI; Wholesale sales
CHF: PPI
CNY: New Loans; GDP q/y; industrial production y/y; Fixed asset investment ytd; NBS press conferencel Retail sales
EUR: Draghi speaks; ZEW economic indicator; CPI/Core CPI y/y
GBP: CPI y/y; RPI Input; Carney speaks; Unemployment rate; Claimats amount
JPY: Monetary policy statement; Press conference
NZD: CPI q/q
USD: Core/Retail sales; FED Chair testifies; PPI; Building permits;
FOREX: W1
DXY Inside week and Spinning Top provide a neutral bias; However holding above 80 key level so potential for gains
AUDUSD Shooting Star and Inside week below 0.945 resistance warns of potential weakness below this key level
EURUSD Inside week spinning top; Meanders around the 50wk eMA and ranging between 1.350 and 1.370 key levels; Neutral on W1
GBPUSD Hanging Man warns for potentials weakness; However trend still bullish and buy-setups may be considered above 1.70
USDCAD Morning Star Reversal above last week’s Spinning Top Doji and TL from 2012; COTS suggests trend may return bullish
USDCHF Inside week but above previous Bullish Hammer; Potential for continued gains above 0.895 resistance
USDJPY Bearish outside week and at lower end of the 102-103 range; Neutral bias but with bearish undertone
NZDUSD Bullish trend and bullish close to 5-year highs; Continues to be favoured for 'buy the dip' strategies
COMMODITIES: W1
GOLD Target remains $1350 and $1355 however the bullish move is losing momentum; Considering buy setups above $1330
WTI Most bearish close in 11 weeks and at 8-weel low; Intraday remains bearish below $101.50
BRENT Most bearish weekly close in 27-weeks and resting on bullish trendline from April 2012; Downside break targets $103.80
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Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD clings to daily gains above 1.0650
EUR/USD gained traction and turned positive on the day above 1.0650. The improvement seen in risk mood following the earlier flight to safety weighs on the US Dollar ahead of the weekend and helps the pair push higher.
GBP/USD recovers toward 1.2450 after UK Retail Sales data
GBP/USD reversed its direction and advanced to the 1.2450 area after touching a fresh multi-month low below 1.2400 in the Asian session. The positive shift seen in risk mood on easing fears over a deepening Iran-Israel conflict supports the pair.
Gold holds steady at around $2,380 following earlier spike
Gold stabilized near $2,380 after spiking above $2,400 with the immediate reaction to reports of Israel striking Iran. Meanwhile, the pullback seen in the US Treasury bond yields helps XAU/USD hold its ground.
Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC post-halving rally could be partially priced in Premium
Bitcoin price shows no signs of directional bias while it holds above $60,000. The fourth BTC halving is partially priced in, according to Deutsche Bank’s research.
Week ahead – US GDP and BoJ decision on top of next week’s agenda
US GDP, core PCE and PMIs the next tests for the Dollar. Investors await BoJ for guidance about next rate hike. EU and UK PMIs, as well as Australian CPIs also on tap.