A snapshot view of last week's money flow and technical notes for the week ahead.

Weekly Wrap


KEY EVENTS THIS WEEK:

AUD: Retail Sales; Building Approvals; Trade Balance

CAD: GDP; Trade Balance

CNY: Final PMI; Manufacturing PMI

EUR: GER PMI; EUR Flash Estimate; Minimum Bid Rate; ECB Press Conference

GBP: Current Account; Manufacturing PMI; Construction PMI; Services PMI

JPY: Retail Sales; Tenkan Non/Manufacturing

NZD: Business Confidence; GDT Price Index

USD: Core PCR; Consumer Confidnce; ISM Manufacturing; Trade Balance; Nonfarm Payroll

Weekly Wrap


FOREX:

US Dollar

Continues to see heavy inflows with Net Longs at their highest levels on record. With NFP this Friday a decent jobs figure will be required to keep this many bulls happy.

USDCAD reached 1.16 target and continues to favour buy-the-dip strategies

USDJPY Spinning Top on W1 warns of sideways trading/correction. D1 has Bullish Engulfing

USDCNH building bullish momentum above support and suspect swing low is forming on D1

Australian Dollar

Further reduction of Net longs and now very close to becoming Net Short for the first time since April '14. AUD futures bearish move has been confirmed by steady volume, to suggest no threat to the trend.

AUDJPY is resting on bullish trendline form Feb '14 lows; Bears eyeing the break below

AUDUSD targeting 0.866 with resistance at 0.82 and 0.88

Kiwi Dollar

Continued to unwind with increasing momentum following comments from RBNZ and the Kiwi Dollar being "unsustainably high'. Breaking below key support levels across all majors the week starts off with a continued bearish sentiment, with traders likely to sell into any rallies.

British Pound

Saw a slight reduction of Net Short positions following the NO vote for Scotland and continued expectations off BoE to raise interest rates.

GBPAUD is on track to reach 2AUD within a few weeks,

GBPCHF on cusp of breaking to its highest since July 2012 to confirm a Double Bottom on W1

GBPNZD breaking to

GBPJPY targets are 184, 192 per coming weeks; D1 amid correction with support at 176, 175

EURGBP targeting 0.775 (July '12 lows)

GBPNZD broke to 2.5yr highs and formed an inverted H&S on W1

GBPUSD remains within 'referendum range' awaiting a directional catalyst for W1

Euro

Net Shorts continue to dominate with many questioning when the short-side will become overcrowded and end with the inevitable sharp reversal. For now however we have to assume trend continuation and not try to bottom pick with such bearish momentum.

EURUSD printed 2-year lows suffering heaviest weekly loss since Jan '13

EURJPY building potential base above 138.30 support

Weekly Wrap

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