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Talking-Forex.com
Overview
An extremely mixed session through the day, with mixed signals as USD bears (doves) continue to push the index lower, though Thursday’s lows have yet to be tested. The JPY has been the focus of the week however, and we have seen some clear recovery in the cross rates, with GBP/JPY in particular doing well to recover from sub 152.00 levels. This has been on the back of the USD/JPY retracement in USD/JPY, which found a base in NY yesterday at 107.67, recovering just above 109.00 before the latest setback. However, Cable gains have also gone against the flow, with UK trade and manufacturing coming in weaker than expected, as well as the Jun referendum getting ever closer. EUR/GBP has had less of an impact, though supported by comments from the ECB’s Mersch, who revealed the ECB were not targeting the exchange rate – a green light for buyers these days. EUR/USD continues to hold support ahead of 1.1300, but as long as 1.1465-70 holds, further upside is on hold. Commodities and stocks have done well today, with CAD further boosted by a positive jobs report, comprised largely of full time jobs. Resilience seen in the high 1.2900’s though, with AUD and NZD gains also restrained. Looking ahead, central bank meeting in the UK and Canada are likely to be non-events – no rate changes in either case. Plenty of data releases, but worthy of note are the China inflation stats on Monday (early hours), while GDP on Friday will be accompanied by industrial production and retail sales. With so much focus on the JPY, BoJ’s Harada speaks on Tuesday, with a familiar mix of Fed and ECB members through the week.
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EUR/USD clings to daily gains above 1.0650
EUR/USD gained traction and turned positive on the day above 1.0650. The improvement seen in risk mood following the earlier flight to safety weighs on the US Dollar ahead of the weekend and helps the pair push higher.
GBP/USD recovers toward 1.2450 after UK Retail Sales data
GBP/USD reversed its direction and advanced to the 1.2450 area after touching a fresh multi-month low below 1.2400 in the Asian session. The positive shift seen in risk mood on easing fears over a deepening Iran-Israel conflict supports the pair.
Gold holds steady at around $2,380 following earlier spike
Gold stabilized near $2,380 after spiking above $2,400 with the immediate reaction to reports of Israel striking Iran. Meanwhile, the pullback seen in the US Treasury bond yields helps XAU/USD hold its ground.
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Week ahead – US GDP and BoJ decision on top of next week’s agenda
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