FOREX

Forex

Forex – The dollar rose against the euro and other European currencies on Monday as investors booked profits from a surge that followed European Central Bank President Mario Draghi's suggestion last week that the bank may not continue easing monetary policy. The euro zone currency posted its largest gain in a month after Draghi's remarks last Thursday, but has since given up ground against the dollar.

The dollar rose broadly against major European currencies on Monday. Against the Swiss franc, it added 0.45 percent. Sterling also fell against the dollar, shedding 0.6 percent. br />

The dollar fell sharply on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, but reduced its expectations for interest rate hikes in 2016 to two from four. In a statement many investors regarded as more accommodating for looser policy than expected, the Fed noted that moderate U.S. economic growth and "strong job gains" would allow it to resume tightening monetary policy this year, but also said the economy continues to face risks from an uncertain global outlook.

The dollar touched a one-week low against the yen, turning negative for the first time in the North American trading session after the FOMC statement. The statement also gave a major boost to commodity-linked currencies like the Canadian, New Zealand and Australian dollars, all of which moved up more than 1.5 percent against their U.S. counterpart. The three currencies also gained from rising oil prices, which added to earlier gains after the FOMC statement.

The dollar rose against most major currencies on Friday, recovering from a five-month low, as traders exited short positions after two straight days of selling in the wake of the Federal Reserve's cautious view on global market developments. The dollar rose against the oil-linked Mexican peso and Russian ruble, gaining 0.2 percent and 0.25 percent respectively. The dollar gained 0.1 percent against the Colombian peso.


INDICES

Indices

Indices A gauge of stocks across the globe ticked up on Monday, with Wall Street shares again tracking the price of oil lower and Europe up on bets banks will benefit from monetary policy.

The Dow Jones industrial average rose 0.03 percent, the S&P 500 lost 0.19 percent and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.11 percent. The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index, which had climbed 2.7 percent on Friday, was up 0.8 percent. MSCI's gauge of stocks across major ticked up less than 0.1 percent.

Stocks in major markets rose on Wednesday, led by Wall Street, and the U.S. dollar weakened after the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady while lowering expectations for the number of rate hikes this year. MSCI's gauge of equities in major world economies jumped 0.6 percent. Nikkei futures were little changed, roughly at the same level as before the Fed statement.

A gauge of stocks across major markets was poised for a fifth week of gains on Friday, its longest weekly run in more than two years, as the dollar's weakness and an apparent bottom in commodity prices combined to draw investors into risk assets. The Dow Jones industrial average rose 0.73 percent, the S&P 500 gained 0.44 percent and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.41 percent.

European stocks ended up on Friday but slightly lower for the week. MSCI's index of stocks in major developed markets gained 1.4 percent this week and stocks in emerging markets jumped 3.2 percent in their third straight weekly advance.


COMMODITIES

Commodities

Commodities – Gold turned lower and fell below $1,240 an ounce on Monday, as stock markets and the dollar gained, and investors squared positions ahead of closely watched policy meetings of U.S. and Japanese central banks this week. Spot gold was down 1.2 percent an ounce at 3:19 p.m. EST( 1919 GMT), off an earlier high. U.S. gold futures for April delivery settled down 1.1 percent an ounce.

Arabica coffee and sugar futures on ICE turned up to reach the highest levels in 2016 so far on Wednesday, on looming supply concerns and as the currency in top grower Brazil sharply pared its losses. London cocoa steadied, supported by a weaker pound, which made positions cheaper for holders of other currencies, while the dollar-traded New York market dropped for the second straight day. Sugar and coffee rallied as the 19-market Thomson Reuters CoreCommodity Index climbed more than 1 percent.

Arabica coffee futures moved up on Friday towards the prior session's five-month peak as the market's focus remained on political unrest in top producer Brazil. May raw sugar futures were off 0.1 percent after rising to a peak on Thursday, their highest level since January 2015.

May white sugar was off 0.5 percent at per tonne.

Cocoa futures were higher with the market underpinned by concern that hot, dry weather earlier in the season will reduce the size of mid-crops in West Africa. May London cocoa rose 0.4 percent and May New York was up 0.6 percent.


ENERGY

Crude

Crude Oil – Oil prices fell about 3 percent on Monday on concerns that a six-week market recovery has gone beyond fundamentals as U.S. crude stockpiles continue to build and Iran maintains little interest in joining major producers in freezing production. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, meanwhile, said global demand for crude from its members, including Saudi Arabia and Iran, will be less than previously thought in 2016 due to competing non-OPEC supply

U.S. oil prices jumped almost 6 percent on Wednesday, erasing losses of the past two days, after major producers firmed up plans to meet in Qatar to discuss an output freeze and U.S. crude stockpiles grew less than expected. Oil gained further on Wednesday on data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) that showed U.S. crude inventories last week climbed to its fifth straight week of record highs but by just 1.3 million barrels, a much smaller build than forecast.

Crude oil prices settled lower on Friday after the U.S rig count rose for the first time since December, renewing worries of a supply glut after an output freeze proposal helped boost the market to 2016 highs and multi-week gains. U.S. energy firms this week added one oil rig after 12 weeks of cuts, according to data by industry firm Baker Hughes. The addition, coming after oil rigs had fallen by two-thirds over the past year to 2009 lows, showed crude drilling picking up again after a 50 percent price rally since February.

Natural Gas

Natural Gas – U.S. natural gas futures on Tuesday edged up to the highest level in four weeks as a technical rally continued after easing on Monday with crude futures and forecasts for spring-like weather for the rest of March. After rising for six days in a row before declining marginally on Monday, front-month gas futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 2.2 percent, per million British thermal units at 8:34 a.m. EDT (1234 GMT)

U.S. natural gas futures traded within a few cents of unchanged on Wednesday after climbing for seven of the past eight trading days in a technical, short-covering rally that started after the front-month fell to a 1998 low earlier in March. After gaining 8 percent so far this month, front-month gas futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange NGc1 were down 0.92 percent at 8:56 a.m. EDT (1256 GMT).

On Thursday, The U.S. Energy Information Administration said utilities pulled just 1 billion cubic feet of gas out of storage during the week ended March 11. That could be the last draw of the winter season and was within the range of analyst expectations for a 2 bcf draw. It compared with draws of 88 bcf a year earlier and a five-year average draw of 81 bcf.

The information set forth herein was obtained from sources which we believe to be reliable, but its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. It is not intended to be an offer, or the solicitation of any offer, to buy or sell the products or instruments referred herein. Any person placing reliance on this commentary to undertake trading does so entirely at their own risk.

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