Allan von Mehren
Danske Bank A/S
Market Movers ahead
Norway will likely be the centre of attention next week, with the so-called oil investment survey due on Tuesday. Falling oil prices since last summer have already had a negative effect on the Norwegian economy, but as the price of oil has declined further since its last release, the survey may well have significant market impact if it delivers a surprise.
In Europe, several interesting measures of the health of the industrial sector are due. Eurozone PMI is scheduled for Monday, when we expect to see a slight rise, followed on Tuesday by Germany’s IFO, which will provide further insight into the outlook for German industry in the coming months. Here too, we assume the IFO expectations index will post a small increase, as the Chinese economy appears more stable and financial uncertainty has eased a little.
Inflation will be in focus in the US, with the release of PCE inflation on Wednesday. Inflation is a key determinant of interest rates.
Global macro and market themes
Our MacroScope models have turned positive for the first time in more than six months.
This is positive for equities, particularly the European ones, neutral for fixed income.
Previous Fed rate hiking cycles suggest that the USD will weaken after lift-off.
The CNY to weaken but we still do not expect a big devaluation.
This publication has been prepared by Danske Bank for information purposes only. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Whilst reasonable care has been taken to ensure that its contents are not untrue or misleading, no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness and no liability is accepted for any loss arising from reliance on it. Danske Bank, its affiliates or staff, may perform services for, solicit business from, hold long or short positions in, or otherwise be interested in the investments (including derivatives), of any issuer mentioned herein. Danske Bank's research analysts are not permitted to invest in securities under coverage in their research sector.
This publication is not intended for private customers in the UK or any person in the US. Danske Bank A/S is regulated by the FSA for the conduct of designated investment business in the UK and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.
Copyright () Danske Bank A/S. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by copyright and may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD pressures as Fed officials hold firm on rate policy
The Australian Dollar is on the defensive against the US Dollar, as Friday’s Asian session commences. On Thursday, the antipodean clocked losses of 0.21% against its counterpart, driven by Fed officials emphasizing they’re in no rush to ease policy. The AUD/USD trades around 0.6419.
EUR/USD extends its downside below 1.0650 on hawkish Fed remarks
The EUR/USD extends its downside around 1.0640 after retreating from weekly peaks of 1.0690 on Friday during the early Asian session. The hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials provide some support to the US Dollar.
Gold price edges higher on risk-off mood hawkish Fed signals
Gold prices advanced late in the North American session on Thursday, underpinned by heightened geopolitical risks involving Iran and Israel. Federal Reserve officials delivered hawkish messages, triggering a jump in US Treasury yields, which boosted the Greenback.
Runes likely to have massive support after BRC-20 and Ordinals frenzy
With all eyes peeled on the halving, Bitcoin is the center of attention in the market. The pioneer cryptocurrency has had three narratives this year already, starting with the spot BTC exchange-traded funds, the recent all-time high of $73,777, and now the halving.
Billowing clouds of apprehension
Thursday marked the fifth consecutive session of decline for US stocks as optimism regarding multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve waned. The downturn in sentiment can be attributed to robust economic data releases, prompting traders to adjust their expectations for multiple rate cuts this year.